Mixed reactions trail NBS Q3 GDP growth data, CPPE warns on cost rising cost of living, Coronation expects better Q4 result

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has warned that the cost of living may rise despite Nigeria’s GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025. This is contained in its latest policy brief, signed by CEO, Dr Muda Yusuf. Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.98% YoY in Q3 2025, slightly lower than the 4.3% posted in Q2, but still reflecting what CPPE described as a sustained consolidation of macroeconomic stability.

The think tank attributed the performance to improved exchange-rate stability, moderating inflation, stronger fiscal operations and rising investor confidence. These gains, it said, have supported business activities across key sectors, particularly services, ICT, construction and finance.
However, CPPE warned that the social impact of reforms remains a significant challenge. “Although disinflation is underway and some food and manufactured goods are easing in price, the cost-of-living crisis continues to weigh heavily on households,” the organisation noted, calling for urgent targeted interventions to protect vulnerable groups.

CPPE urged the Federal Government to intensify structural reforms and accelerate targeted investments to secure stronger, more inclusive economic growth. The organization said that while the economy is on a “gradual but steady recovery path,” long-standing structural constraints, particularly in agriculture, manufacturing, trade, and housing, continue to limit productivity, weaken competitiveness and heighten cost-of-living pressures for households. “With continued reforms, targeted investments, and strengthened governance, Nigeria is well-positioned to deliver stronger economic outcomes in the months ahead,” the CPPE stated.

Reacting to the figures Coronation said “We expect Nigeria’s economy to maintain moderate growth in Q4’ 25, underpinned by both oil and non-oil sectors, though the pace may vary across industries. Crude oil output is anticipated to recover gradually following the disruptions observed in Q3’ 25 due to strikes and maintenance at major facilities. With planned production resumption and tighter security measures, oil output could
stabilize, supporting fiscal revenue increases and foreign exchange inflows.

“However, global oil price volatility remains a key risk that could influence sectoral contribution to GDP. The peak harvest season may be fading, but the agriculture sector is still positioned for steady growth,
supported by residual post-harvest supply, strong domestic demand, and firm export orders. Crop production, livestock, and forestry are expected to maintain solid performance, even as fishing activity softens. Improving logistics and easing food inflation will help sustain output, ensuring agriculture continues to anchor non-oil growth in Q4. Services are projected to continue leading non-oil growth, with trade, telecommunications, financial services, and real estate benefiting from heightened consumer activity.

“The Yuletide season is likely to boost retail trade, hospitality, and entertainment segments, generating higher consumption and transactional volumes. Telecommunications will continue to support digital adoption, while financial services may gain from increased lending and investment activity, amplified by the start of expected monetary easing measures by CBN.

The manufacturing sector may see modest growth in Q4, constrained by input costs, energy supply challenges, and limited local raw material availability. However, heightened consumer demand during the holiday season and seasonal industrial activity could partially offset these constraints. Key sub-sectors such as food processing, cement, and consumer goods are likely to benefit from increased seasonal consumption.

“Overall, Q4’ 25 is expected to see continued but moderate GDP expansion, with non-oil sectors, particularly services, agriculture, and manufacturing, leading the way, while the oil sector stabilizes. The Yuletide season will potentially present a temporary boost to consumption-driven sectors, which may positively influence quarterly growth and liquidity in the economy. We expect real GDP growth to settle at 4.02% y/y in Q4’ 25, bringing the full year 2025 growth at 3.82% y/y (vs
3.34% y/y in 2024).

National Bureau of Statistics had reported that Nigeria’s economy maintained its steady growth path in Q3’ 25, reflecting slower growth from the previous quarter. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, real GDP expanded by 3.98% y/y, up from 3.86% in Q3’ 24 but slightly below the 4.23% recorded in Q2’ 25. Nominal GDP remained strong, rising 18.12% y/y to N113.59 trillion, reflecting elevated prices and sustained activity across major sectors.

Quarter-on-quarter growth strengthened markedly, with real GDP increasing by 11.39%, compared with 3.77% in Q2’ 25. This improvement was driven largely by the non-oil sector, which contributed 96.6% of total output and grew 3.91% y/y, up from 3.64% in the previous quarter. Resilient growth across trade, ICT, agriculture, and financial services continues to underpin economic performance.

In contrast, the oil sector faced operational disruptions from
strike actions and maintenance activities, which temporarily reduced crude
production and softened its contribution. Overall, Q3’ 25 reaffirms Nigeria’s gradual transition toward a more diversified, non-oil-driven growth structure, even as macroeconomic conditions remain shaped by inflation, forex (FX) dynamics, and ongoing policy adjustments.