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N202.7 to exchange for a dollar in 2015 – IMF projection

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By Omoh Gabriel
The naira has been projected to further depreciate in the coming years and may exchange for N202.7 to a dollar by 2015 according to International Monetary Fund evaluation of Nigeria macro economic indices. Projection by the multilateral institution said that in 2009, the naira will exchange on the average for N148.7 to the dollar while in 2010, it will go for N149.9 to the dollar. In 2011, the naira is projected to exchange for N155.1 to the dollar and in 2012, it will exchange at N166.1 to the dollar. IMF data projection on the exchange rate of the naira further indicates that in 2013, the exchange rate of the naira will depreciate further to exchange for N177.7 to the dollar and that in 2014, it will exchange for N189.9 to the dollar and in 2015, N202.7 will exchange for one dollar. As at today, the naira is already exchanging officially at N150.4 to the dollar at the official market. At the parallel market, it goes for as low as N155 to the dollar.
CBN official figures show that in 2004, the naira exchange rate at the official market as at the end of December was N132.86 while it was N138.71 in the bureau de change. In 2005, the exchange rate of the naira to the dollar was N130.29 at the official market and N141.93 at the open market by the end of that year. CBN data equally show that in 2006, the exchange rate of the naira firmed up to an average of N128.29 in the official market and N129.32 in the open market. In 2007, the naira further strengthened to exchange on the average for N118.21 at the official market and N121.07 in the open market. In 2008, it lost some value to exchange for N126.48 officially and N137.65 at the open market. In 2009, the naira lost more value to the dollar to exchange for N153.48 in the open market. Last year, the naira suffered some value loss and exchanged for N154.57 to the dollar according to the CBN. This trend in the loss of value in the nation’s currency is expected to continue and would by IMF projection, exchange for N202.7 to the dollar in the next four years.
A communique issued by the Monetary Policy Committee of the CBN and signed by the CBN Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi admitted that ‚ÄúBetween end-2009 and end-2010, the Naira/Dollar exchange rate depreciated by N1.08 or 0.72 per cent, to N150.66/US$ from N149.58 /US$ at end-2009, as against 15.65 per cent depreciation recorded at the end of 2009. The average premium between the CBN transaction rate and the BDC‚Äôs as at end-2010, was 1.83 per cent, compared with 8.58 per cent in 2009″.
But financial experts say that following the addition of the Chinese Yuan to tradeable currencies in the Nigerian financial system by the Central Bank of Nigeria, there are strong indications that the exchange rate of the naira to the dollar will improve in 2011. This is because many countries may begin to move their currencies away from the dollar which has served for over 50 years as the reserve currency of the global financial system.
Also this is hinged on the belief that the pressure on the Nigerian financial system to buy dollar for Chinese transactions would reduce, thereby reducing pressure on the naira. The Executive Secretary/Chief Executive Officer, Finance Houses Association of Nigeria, Mr. Benn Nwokike, recently confirmed this position and said that Chinese investments in Nigeria were growing, and the CBN‘s directive was timely. He said the Chinese economy was growing faster than strong economies like the United States, adding that the addition of the yuan to a list of currencies that could be used for trade settlement in the domestic foreign exchange market, was an economic decision that would pay-off in the short-run and the long-run.
”This will reduce demand for the dollar, improve the condition of the naira, and give the authorities the ability to manage the exchange rate,” Nwokike added.
In the same vein, a Chartered Accountant, Tax and Management Consultant, and the Chairman, DCSA Consults, Chief Denis Alaribe, maintained that the move would further improve the volume of trade between Nigeria and China, with positive implication on the overall economic performance.
China is encouraging countries to use the yuan for trade settlement and diversify bilateral trade, away from the dollar and about one third of Nigeria‘s imports come from Asia, most of them from China, the CBN said recently.
The data for 2009 indicated that Asian imports into Nigeria‘s economy rose by 6.6 per cent during the year, while imports from Western nations declined 4.4 per cent, reflecting its shifting trade pattern.
However, a recent report conducted by Citigroup said: “ The macroeconomic outlook for Nigeria is very encouraging with real GDP expected to grow 7.4% (IMF forecast) in 2010. Notably, the CBN is expecting real GDP growth of 7.78 per cent in 2010 and reported growth of 7.69 per cent in 2010. Additionally, the inflation outlook for Nigeria is stable, with the IMF forecasting single-digit inflation from 2011 to 2015. Finally, we would add that, with low debt and a healthy current account balance, Nigeria is well positioned to deliver on its robust growth outlook.”
The report further said: “ We expect Nigeria’s nominal GDP growth (18% p.a., 2009- 13E) to translate into deposit growth of 24 per cent p.a. over the same period. In absolute terms, we are forecasting system deposits to grow from N9.5 trillion to N22.4 trillion. Relative to Nigeria’s GDP, the penetration of system deposits should increase to 45 per cent of GDP by 2013 (from 38% of GDP in 2009).
“On the asset side, we are forecasting limited loan growth in 2010 (2% yoy) and then accelerated loan growth between 2011 and 2013 (20% p.a.). We believe the sluggish credit growth in 2010 is reflective of (i) current trends (private sector credit up 5% yoy as at August) and (ii) bank cautiousness following the national audit in 2009 and uncertainties over future regulation.
“In 2011, we expect the banks to begin to deploy their excess liquidity and grow rather aggressively (30% yoy). Thereafter, system loan growth should grow at a multiple of 1.2x nominal GDP growth (i.e. in line with its historical average of 1.2x nominal GDP growth).
In absolute terms, we are forecasting system loans to grow from N7.9 trillion (US$52 billion) in 2010 to N14.7 trillion (US$83 billion) in 2013. With regards to bank liquidity levels, we are expecting system loan-to-deposit ratios to fall to 69% at year-end 2010 and then to 66% by year-end 2013.”
Nigeria needs to muster up courage to implement appropriate reforms with regard to industrial and trade policies aimed at reducing import dependence. Substantial foreign exchange is expended annually on JVC Cash calls and importation of petroleum products due to the delay in implementing much needed reforms in the oil sector. The country is also expending foreign exchange on import of food items such as rice whereas what is needed is the implementation of policies that will lead to food security and total self sufficiency. The only way to maintain a stable exchange rate is for Nigeria to import less and increase domestic production of imported items.
Nigeria Economic Indicators
2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Real GDP Growth
– IMF 7.0% 7.4% 7.4% 7.2% 7.1% 6.1% 6.0%
Nominal GDP Growth
– IMF 2.2% 23.4% 16.6% 17.3% 16.8% 14.9% 14.7%
CPI (% yoy)
– IMF 11.9% 11.2% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
Exchange Rate (NGN/US$, Avg)
– IMF 148.7 149.9 155.1 166.1 177.7 189.9 202.7

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Afreximbank successfully closed its second Samurai Bond transactions, raising JPY 81.8bn or $527m

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African Export-Import Bank said it has successfully closed its second Samurai bond transaction, securing a total of JPY 81.8 billion (approx. USD 527 million) through Regular and Retail Samurai Bonds offerings.

The execution surpasses the Bank’s 2024 debut issuance size, attracting orders from more than 100 institutional and retail investors, marking a renewed demonstration of strong Japanese investor confidence in the Bank’s credit and its growing presence in the yen capital markets.

On 18 November, Afreximbank priced a JPY 45.8 billion 3-year tranche in the Regular Samurai market following a comprehensive sequence of investor engagement activities leveraging Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD9), including Non-Deal Roadshows (NDRs) in Tokyo, Kanazawa, Kyoto, Shiga and Osaka, a Global Investor Call, and a two-day soft-sounding process which tested investor appetite across 2.5-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities.

With market expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate increase, investor demand concentrated in shorter tenors, resulting in a focused 3-year tranche during official marketing.

The tranche attracted strong participation from asset managers (22.3%), life insurers (15.3%), regional corporates, and high-net-worth investors (39.7%).

Concurrently, Afreximbank priced its second Retail Samurai bond on 18 November, a JPY 36.0 billion 3-year tranche, more than double the inaugural JPY 14.1 billion Retail Samurai issuance completed in November 2024.

The 2025 Retail Samurai bond also marks the first Retail Samurai bond issued in Japan in 2025.

Following the amendment to Afreximbank’s shelf registration on 7 November 2025, SMBC Nikko conducted an extensive seven-business-day demand survey through its nationwide branch network, followed by a six-business-day bond offering period.

The offering benefited from strong visibility supported by Afreximbank’s investor engagement across the country, including the Bank’s participation at TICAD9, where Afreximbank hosted the Africa Finance Seminar to introduce Multinational Development Bank’s mandate in Africa and its credit profile to key Japanese institutional investors.

MBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as Sole Lead Manager and Bookrunner for both the Regular and Retail Samurai transactions. Chandi Mwenebungu, Afreximbank’s Managing Director, Treasury & Markets and Group Treasurer, commented:

“We are pleased with the successful completion of our second Samurai bond transactions, which marked a significant increase from our inaugural Retail Samurai bond in 2024, and which reflect the growing depth of our relationship with Japanese investors.

The strong demand, both in the Regular and Retail offerings, demonstrates sustained confidence in Afreximbank’s credit and mandate.

We remain committed to deepening our engagement in the Samurai market through regular investor activities and continued collaboration with our Japanese partners.”

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Ecobank unveils SME bazaar: a festive marketplace for local entrepreneurs

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Ecobank Nigeria, a member of Africa’s leading pan-African banking group, has announced the launch of the Ecobank SME Bazaar—a two-weekend festive marketplace designed to celebrate local creativity, empower entrepreneurs, and give Lagos residents a premium shopping experience this Detty December. The Bazaar will hold on 29–30 November and 6–7 December at the Ecobank Pan African Centre (EPAC), Ozumba Mbadiwe Road, Victoria Island, Lagos. Speaking ahead of the event, Omoboye Odu, Head of SMEs, Ecobank Nigeria, reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to supporting small and medium-sized businesses, describing them as the heartbeat of Nigeria’s economy. She explained that the Ecobank SME Bazaar was created to enhance visibility for entrepreneurs, expand market access, and support sustainable business growth.
According to her, “This isn’t just a market—it’s a vibrant hub of culture, commerce, and connection. From fresh farm produce to trendy fashion, handcrafted pieces, lifestyle products, and delicious food and drinks, the Ecobank SME Bazaar promises an unforgettable experience for both shoppers and participating SMEs. Whether you’re shopping for festive gifts, hunting for unique finds, or soaking in the Detty December energy, this is the place to be.” Ms. Odu added that participating businesses will enjoy increased brand exposure, deeper customer engagement, and meaningful networking opportunities—making the Bazaar a strong platform for both festive-season sales and long-term business growth. The event is powered by Ecobank in partnership with TKD Farms, Eko Marche, Leyyow, and other SME-focused organisations committed to building sustainable enterprises.

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16 banks have recapitalised before deadline—CBN

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said that16 banks have so far met the new capital requirements for their various licences, some four months before the March 31, 2026 deadline. The apex bank also indicated that 27 other banks have raised capital through various methods in one of the most extensive financial sector reforms since 2004. Addressing journalists at the end of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, CBN Governor Mr Olayemi Cardoso said the banking recapitalisation was going on orderly, consistent with the regulator’s expectations. He said, “We are monitoring developments, and indications show the process is moving in the right direction.” Nigeria has 44 deposit-taking banks, including seven commercial banks with international authorisation, 15 with national authorisation, four with regional authorisation, four non-interest banks, six merchant banks, seven financial holding companies and one representative office.
Cardoso explained that eight commercial banks had met the N500 billion capital requirement as of July 22, 2024, rising to 14 by September of the same year. The number has now increased to 16 as the industry continues to race toward full compliance. He said that the reforms would reinforce the resilience of Nigerian banks both within the country and across the continent. “We are building a financial system that will be fit for purpose for the years ahead. Many Nigerian banks now operate across Africa and have been innovative across different markets. These new buffers will better equip them to manage risks in the multiple jurisdictions where they operate,” Cardoso said. According to him, the reforms would strengthen the financial sector’s capability to support households and businesses. He said, “Ultimately, this benefits Nigerians—our traders, our businesses and our citizens—who operate across those regions. “It should give everyone comfort to know that Nigerian banks with deep local understanding are present to support them. Commercial banks are also creating their own buffers through the ongoing recapitalisation.”
He added that the apex bank considered several factors in determining the new capital thresholds, including prevailing macroeconomic conditions, stress test results and the need for stronger risk buffers. He reassured on the regulator’s commitment to strict oversight as the consolidation progresses. “We will rigorously enforce our ‘fit and proper’ criteria for prospective new shareholders, senior management, and board members of banks, and proactively monitor the integrity of financial statements, adequacy of financial resources, and fair valuation of banks’ post-merger balance sheets,” Cardoso said. He said the CBN remained confident that the banking system would emerge stronger at the conclusion of the recapitalization exercise, with institutions better prepared to support Nigeria’s economic transformation Banks have up till March 31, 2026 to beef up their minimum capital base to the new standard set by the apex bank. Under the new minimum capital base, CBN uses a distinctive definition of the new minimum capital base for each category of banks as the addition of share capital and share premium, as against the previous use of shareholders’ funds.
While most banks have shareholders’ funds in excess of the new minimum capital base, their share premium and share capital significantly fall short of the new minimum definition. The CBN had in March 2024 released its circular on review of minimum capital requirement for commercial, merchant and non-interest banks. The apex bank increased the new minimum capital for commercial banks with international affiliations, otherwise known as mega banks, to N500 billion; commercial banks with national authorisation, N200 billion and commercial banks with regional license, N50 billion. Others included merchant banks, N50 billion; non-interest banks with national license, N20 billion and non-interest banks with regional license will now have N10 billion minimum capital. The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. Under the guidelines for the recapitalisation exercise, banks are expected to subject their new equity funds to capital verification before the clearance of the allotment proposal and release of the funds to the bank for onwards completion of the offer process and addition of the new capital to its capital base. The CBN is the final signatory in a tripartite capital verification committee that included the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC). The committee is saddled with scrutinising new funds being raised by banks under the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise.

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