Nigeria/Africa’s best defense in a world of unpredictable shocks is a strong, flexible continental trading system–NIIA

The Bashir Adeniyi Centre for International Trade and Investment (BACITI), of Nigeria Institute of International Affairs NIIA, has in a research paper said that in a world of unpredictable shocks, Nigeria/Africa’s best defense is a strong, flexible continental trading system. It said that “building resilient port and trade logistics in Africa will not happen overnight, but the trajectory is set. Nigeria, with its immense economic weight, has a leading role to play by modernizing its ports, investing in infrastructure, embracing digital efficiency, and championing the tenets of AfCFTA, Nigeria can transform to a powerhouse of regional trade. This transformation is already underway, seen in projects like the Lekki Deep Sea Port and initiatives to streamline port operations.
“The ripple effects of a more efficient Nigeria will be felt across the continent: smoother supply chains, more robust intra-African commerce, and better insulation from global turbulence. In an era of rising global trade disruptions, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Ukraine war and Red Sea shipping crisis, port resilience and trade logistics are now at the forefront of Africa’s trade competitiveness. Nigeria’s ports handle over 80% of its international trade. Therefore, strengthening port efficiency, digitalization, and logistics networks is crucial to fully leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and position the country as a regional trade hub.”
It further said “in the past five years, global trade has entered a period of heightened volatility. For Africa, such disruptions have exposed vulnerabilities such as long turnaround times, port congestion, limited intermodal connections, and over-reliance on few trade routes. 2020: COVID-19 triggered a 9.2% drop in global trade volumes. Freight rates for routes involving Africa skyrocketed in 2022 up to 248% year-on-year, due to imbalances in supply and demand. 2022-2023: The war in Ukraine added $25 billion in extra shipping costs globally, and a 14.9% decline in African grain imports from Ukraine 2023/early 2025: Increased uncertainty in global supply chain. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea forced over 20% of global container traffic to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. African countries like Kenya, relying on the route have experienced increased shipping times and costs.
“MAY 2025 AfCFTA aims to boost intra-African trade by 53% by 2035. UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates suggest that if fully implemented, AfCFTA could; Increase intra-African freight by 28% and Spur a 62% rise in demand for maritime transport. In practical terms, a more integrated Africa means countries can source more goods from each other and depend relatively less on distant suppliers, building buffers against global disruptions. For example, regional supply networks in food or pharmaceuticals could mitigate the impact of global crises by ensuring essential goods are produced and traded within the continent”.