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Nigeria economic outlook in 2022 largely positive—-Muda

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The Chief Executive officer of Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise in Nigeria Dr Muda Yusuf has said that the Outlook for the Nigerian economy in 2022 is largely positive saying that  Gross Domestic Product GDP growth would remain fragile and projected at 3% threshold. The key expected drivers of growth include the following sustained recovery of global oil price.  In a statement in Lagos the Centre said “We expect that the average oil price in 2022 will exceed the budgeted benchmark of sixty-two dollars per barrel, offering some fiscal headroom. This would be powered by higher energy demand driven by the recovery of economic activities globally. This trajectory is expected to impact on our foreign reserve and strengthen the capacity of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to support the foreign exchange market.

“The impact of the pandemic on the global and domestic economies is beginning to dissipate on account of increased vaccination and other measures to contain the pandemic. The capacity of many countries to manage the pandemic has progressively improved with each pandemic experience. Therefore, the shocks of subsequent variant of the pandemic on the global and domestic economies are likely to be less severe than previous ones. Instances of lockdowns of economies are less likely to be prevalent in 2022.  We expect to see less damaging response adopted by countries around the world. Therefore, both globally and domestically we are less likely to witness prolonged lockdowns. The service sector of the Nigerian economy will continue to outpace the real sector in 2022. In the third quarter of 2021, service sector contribution to GDP was 50% and the growth of the sector was 8.41%.  oil sector contribution to GDP was 7.5%; while the non-oil sector contribution was 92.5%. while the industrial sector growth contracted by 1.63% agriculture grew by 1.2%. The reason for this was that the service sector is less vulnerable to the structural constraints bedevilling the economy, particularly the real sector of the economy. The infrastructure demand in the services sector is much less than that of the real sector of the economy.

“The activation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2022 is expected to impact positively on the economic outlook. We expect to see positive outcomes as investor sentiments in the oil and gas sector improves on account of the reforms anchored on the PIA. This will however depend on the political will deployed to drive the implementation of the provisions of the Act. It is also expected that the coming on stream of the Dangote refinery in 2022 will also impact positively on the downstream sector of the economy.  The economic players will grapple with a number of headwinds in the economy in 2022.  These have macroeconomic, policy, regulatory, structural and security dimensions. The seemingly intractable problem of insecurity remains a significant risk to the economy and the impact on some sectors, especially the Agricultural sector will be profound. There are also concerns about the effect on the perception of Nigeria as an investment destination and implications for Nigeria country risk rating.“Monetary and foreign exchange policy rigidities may also pose a risk to the growth outlook as there are no indications of any significant shift in monetary and foreign exchange policy stance in the near term. Consequently, the distortions inherent in the foreign exchange market will persist in 2022. The constraining effect of the high Cash Reserve Requirement [CRR] on financial intermediation would also persist in 2022 with a dampening effect on growth outlook. Investors will have to grapple with the barriers to international trade experienced in 2021. These are problems relating to the Lagos ports, the traffic gridlock, port congestion, bureaucratic documentation processes, extortions and the prohibitive charges by terminal operators and shipping companies are unlikely to abate in 2022. Investors would have to grapple with these constraints in 2022. There will be intense electioneering activities in 2022, preparatory to the 2023 elections. This will cause some serious distractions for political office holders at all levels as they struggle to retain power during the elections. This will adversely impact the economy and the investment environment as considerable attention and resources are committed to the electioneering activities in 2022”. 

Continuing He said “the aggressive drive for revenue by agencies of government will put enormous pressures on investors in 2022. Beyond the regular tax authorities, other agencies of government may become more aggressive in their revenue drive.  This will constitute an additional burden to investors in 2022. The burden of petroleum subsidies on government finances may persist in 2022 despite the PIA. It is doubtful whether the government will be able to exercise the political will to effect the removal of petroleum subsidy given the closeness of the timing to the 2023 elections. Therefore, on account of political exigencies and push back by the ruling party and labour, the economy may have to bear the heavy fiscal burden of subsidy in 2022.   This also signals delays in the full implementation of the PIA and reform of the downstream oil sector.  However, if the Dangote refinery comes on stream in 2022, the fiscal pressure may abate, but not completely eliminated. The pressure of debt service on government finances will persist in 2022 and beyond.  Total public debt as at 30th September 2021 was N38 trillion or $92.6 billion, according to the Debt Management office.  

“The 2022 Budget provided for the sum of 3.88 trillion Naira as debt service. This is a substantial amount when compared with the capital budget provision of N5.46 trillion.  Debt service payment is typically a first line charge in budget releases. The ambitious budget size of 17.1 trillion Naira and the unpredictable revenue outlook elevates the risk of higher fiscal deficit than projected.  This has implications for macroeconomic outcomes of high fiscal deficits, a new round of monetisation of the deficit, pressures on the exchange rate and the general price level. Despite the downside risks, the economy will continue to present huge opportunities for investors across all sectors. This is on account of the resourcefulness of the Nigerian people, especially the entrepreneurs.  Other inherent strengths of the Nigerian economy include the market size, the population, and the demographic characteristics. The economy will continue to draw its resilience from the activities and creativity of the SMEs and the informal sector of the economy.  The reality is that the policy, structural and regulatory weaknesses will persist in 2022.  But investors have a responsibility to construct their business and corporate strategies to manage the inherent risks”. 

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15% petrol import tax requires strategic roll out – LCCI

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Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has stressed the need for a measured and strategic rollout of the 15 per cent petroleum import tax to ensure sustainable economic impact. The Director-General, LCCI, Dr Chinyere Almona, gave the advice in a statement on Monday in Lagos. Almona noted the recent decision by the Federal Government to impose a 15 per cent import tax on petrol and diesel, a move aimed at curbing import dependence and promoting local refining capacity.

She said while the policy direction aligned with the nation’s long-term objective of achieving energy self-sufficiency and naira strengthening, a strategic rollout was imperative. Almona said that Nigeria was already experiencing cost-of-living pressures, supply-chain, and inflation challenges and that the business community would be sensitive to further cost shocks. “The chamber recognises that discouraging fuel importation is a necessary step towards achieving domestic energy security, stimulating investment in local refineries, and deepening the downstream petroleum value chain.

“However, LCCI expresses concern about the current adequacy of local refining capacity to meet national demand. A premature restriction on imports, without sufficient domestic production, could lead to supply shortages, higher pump prices, and inflationary pressures across critical sectors,” she said. Almona called on the Federal Government to prioritise the full operationalisation and optimisation of local refineries, both public and private, including modular refineries and the recently revitalised major refining facilities. She said that a comprehensive framework for crude oil supply to these refineries in Naira rather than foreign exchange would significantly enhance cost efficiency, stabilise production, and strengthen the local value chain.

She said the chamber’s interest lied in a diversified downstream sector where multiple refineries, modular plants, and logistics firms thrive. She urged government to resolve outstanding labour union issues and create an enabling environment that fostered industrial harmony and private sector confidence.

According to her, ensuring clarity, consistency, and transparency in the implementation of the new tax regime will be crucial in preventing market distortions and sustaining investor trust. “While the reform is justified from an industrial policy standpoint, its success depends on practical implementation, robust safeguards, and parallel reforms to alleviate cost burdens on businesses and consumers. With local capacity not yet established, this tax will increase the cost of fuels as long as imports continue. Government needs to address the inhibiting factors against local production and refining before imposing this levy to discourage imports and support local production,” she said.

Almona recommended that the implementation of the tax policy be postponed. She advised that during the transition period government demonstrate its commitment through action by empowering local refiners through an efficient crude-for-Naira supply chain that ensured sufficient crude. “With this, refiners can boost their refining capacity with a stable supply of crude and adequately meet domestic demand at competitive rates. At this point, the imposition of an import tax will directly discourage importation and boost demand for the locally refined products,” she said.

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Update: Sanwo-Olu, others harp on stronger private sector role to drive AfCFTA success

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Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State has urged the private sector to take a stronger, more coordinated role in driving the successful implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Sanwo-Olu, who made the call at the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria High-Level Business Forum, held on Thursday in Lagos, said that the agreement holds the key to transforming Africa into a globally competitive economic powerhouse. The theme of the forum is “Mobilising Africa’s Private Sector for AfCFTA Towards Africa’s Economic Development Amid Global Uncertainty”.

It brought together policymakers, business leaders, and development experts from across the continent. Sanwo-Olu was represented by the Lagos State Commissioner for Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment, Mrs Folashade Ambrose-Medebem. The governor said AfCFTA had the potential to lift millions of Africans out of poverty, but only if the continent’s business community seized the opportunity to scale production and integrate value chains across borders. “Governments can negotiate tariffs and treaties, but businesses must produce, export, invest, and believe in cross-border possibilities.

The private sector is the true engine of trade and industrialisation; without it, AfCFTA will remain a document and not a driver of development,” Sanwo-Olu said. He said that Lagos State had continued to create an enabling business environment through deliberate investments in infrastructure, logistics and technology, all designed to enhance productivity and trade efficiency. “From our vibrant tech ecosystem in Yaba to the Lekki Deep Sea Port and the expanding industrial corridors of the state, we are building a Lagos that supports trade, innovation, and investment,” he added. The governor stressed the need to empower Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which he described as “the lifeblood of Africa’s economy”.

He said access to finance, mentorship, and digital tools remained essential for their growth. “Through the Lagos State Employment Trust Fund (LSETF), we have supported thousands of entrepreneurs with training and access to funding. When SMEs thrive, our communities grow, jobs are created, and the promise of AfCFTA becomes real,” Sanwo-Olu noted. In his goodwill message, Dr Abdulrashid Yerima, President of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), called on African governments to align policy frameworks with the realities of the private sector to ensure the success of AfCFTA.

Yerima said Africa’s shared prosperity depended on how effectively the continent could mobilise its entrepreneurs and innovators to take advantage of the 1.4 billion-strong continental market. “As private sector leaders, the employers of labour and creators of opportunity, we must move from aspiration to achievement, from potential to performance. AfCFTA is not just an agreement; it is Africa’s blueprint for collective economic independence,” he said. He emphasised the importance of strengthening cooperation among business coalitions, cooperatives, and industrial clusters to ensure that micro and small enterprises benefit from cross-border trade opportunities. “No SME can scale alone in a continental market.

We must build strong business networks that allow small enterprises to grow into regional champions,” he stressed. Yerima further encouraged African nations to adopt global best practices and digital frameworks, such as the OECD Digital for SMEs (D4SME) initiative, to improve access to knowledge, technology, and markets. Also speaking at the event, Mr Samuel Dossou-Aworet, President of the African Business Roundtable (ABR), urged African leaders to fully harness AfCFTA’s opportunities to build inclusive and sustainable economies. Dossou-Aworet noted that while Africa was currently the world’s second-fastest-growing region after Asia, sustained growth would require greater industrialisation and investment in human capital.

“The entry into force of the AfCFTA has expanded Africa’s investment frontiers. Where once our markets were fragmented, we now have a unified platform for trade and production. But growth must be inclusive, not just in numbers, but in impact on people’s lives,” he noted. Citing data from the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dossou-Aworet observed that 12 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2025 are African, including Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal. However, he cautioned that Africa’s GDP growth of around four per cent remained below the seven per cent threshold needed to significantly reduce poverty. “We must ensure that growth translates into better jobs, infrastructure, and access to opportunities for women and youth,” he stressed. He also called for innovative financing models to bridge Africa’s infrastructure gap and improve competitiveness in the global market.

“Africa needs market access and trade facilitation mechanisms to enable its products to reach global markets. Access to affordable capital is key, and our financial systems must evolve to support trade,” he added. Dossou-Aworet reaffirmed the African Business Roundtable’s commitment to supporting enterprise development and promoting Africa as a prime destination for investment. “This is Africa’s moment. If we work together, government, business, and citizens, we will build an Africa that competes confidently in the global economy and delivers prosperity for its people.”

The forum, convened by the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria, brought together regional and international partners to strengthen collaboration between public and private sectors in advancing AfCFTA’s goals. Chairman of the group, Chief J.K. Randle, commended the participation of leading business executives and policymakers, saying it reflected Africa’s readiness to take ownership of its economic destiny. Randle said, “We can no longer rely on external forces to drive our growth. The private sector must rise as the torchbearer of Africa’s transformation under AfCFTA.” He added that the forum would continue to serve as a platform for dialogue, knowledge exchange, and action planning to position African enterprises at the centre of global trade.

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First ever China–Europe Cargo transit completed via the Arctic route

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The first-ever container transit from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) arrived at the British port of Felixstowe on October 13, 2025. The voyage marked a breakthrough in developing the NSR as a sustainable and high-tech transport corridor connecting Asia and Europe. The development of this Arctic route reflects the steady expansion of global trade flows — an evolution that reaches every continent, including Africa, where maritime industries and energy corridors continue to expand.
The ship carrying nearly 25,000 tonnes of cargo departed from Ningbo on September 23 and entered the NSR on October 1. Navigation and information support was provided by Glavsevmorput, a subsidiary of Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation. The Arctic leg of the voyage took 20 days, cutting transit time almost by half compared with traditional southern routes. This new pathway complements existing ones, creating broader opportunities for efficient and sustainable logistics worldwide.
The Northern Sea Route is developing rapidly, becoming a viable and efficient global logistics route. This is facilitated by various factors, including the development of advanced technologies, the construction of new-generation nuclear icebreakers, and growing interest from international shippers. Working in the Arctic is challenging but we are transforming these challenges into results. Along with the main priority of ensuring the safety of navigation on the Northern Sea Route, managing the speed and time of passage along the route is becoming an important task for us today,” noted Rosatom State Corporation Special Representative for Arctic Development Vladimir Panov.
The Northern Sea Route, spanning about 5,600 km, links the western part of Eurasia with the Asia-Pacific region. In 2024, cargo turnover reached 37.9 million tonnes, surpassing the previous year’s record by more than 1.6 million. Container traffic between Russia and China doubled compared to 2023, and by mid-2025, 17 container voyages had already been completed, moving 280,000 tonnes — a 59% increase year-on-year.
The expansion of this Arctic transport route is becoming part of a broader global effort to strengthen connectivity and diversify supply chains. For Africa and the wider Global South these developments demonstrate how innovation in logistics can stimulate new opportunities for trade, technology exchange, and sustainable growth. As new corridors emerge, the world’s regions are becoming more closely linked — not in competition, but in collaboration — shaping a more resilient and interconnected global economy.

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