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Nigeria financial market last week: Oil market balance raises hope for exchange rate stability

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The external reserve balance sustained a downtrend last week, declining 35bps w/w to settle at $36. 0 billion. Furthermore, following the agreement by OPEC+ countries to relax production cuts to 7.7mb/d effective from August, oil continues to trade above $40.0/bbl., reaching a 4-month high of $44.1/bbl. as of 23rd July as economic activities continued to improve despite the spike in COVID-19 cases. Also, the CBN continued its weekly intervention into the Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS) Wholesale Window, offering a total of $100.0m for the week. Meanwhile, the local currency traded flat at ₦381.00 against the dollar in the official window while it depreciated by ₦2.00 to close the week at ₦472.00/$1.00 at the parallel market. At the Investors’ & Exporters’ (I&E) Window, the NAFEX rate weakened by ₦1.00 w/w to settle at ₦389.50/$1.00. Also, activity level weakened 33.2%w/w in the I&E Window to close at $130.3 million.

At the FMDQ Securities Exchange (SE) FX Futures Contract Market, the total value of open contracts appreciated 22bps ($30.3m) w/w to $13.6 billion. The SEP 2020 instrument (contract price: ₦396.48) recorded the most buying interest with additional $17.1m for the week, taking its total value to $1.2 billion. Conversely, the JAN 2021 instrument (contract price: ₦407.30) saw the least subscription of $1.7m, bringing its total value to c.$1.2 billion. In the coming week, the Naira is expected to trade at a similar band on the back of sustained CBN intervention sale to the FX segments 

Money Market: Bullish Run Continues in the T-Bills Market 

At the start of the week, system liquidity stood at ₦86.9 billion while OBB and OVN rates opened at 9.2% and 10.7% respectively, lower than last week’s close of 20.3% and 21.8%. On Tuesday, OBB and OVN rates fell to 2.1% and 2.8% respectively as system liquidity rose to ₦480.6 billion following OMO repayment of ₦25.4 billion. By the close of the week, OBB and OVN rates printed at 1.6% and 2.2% respectively as system liquidity settled at ₦963.1 billion.

In the T-bills secondary segment, performance was bullish as average yield across tenors dipped 7bps w/w to 2.0% from 2.1%. The 91-day instrument saw the most buying interest with rates lowering 50bps. Similarly, rates on the 182- day declined 28bps while the 364-day instrument closed flat. This week, maturities worth ₦20.1 billion and ₦266.0 million are expected from the OMO and T-bills markets respectively as well as bond coupon payment worth ₦49.6 billion to hit the system. As such, the CBN is expected to keep rates in check and mop-up excess liquidity via auctions.

Bonds Market: Bullish Trend Continue 

The domestic bonds market last week experienced continuous buying interest with average yield falling in 4 of 5 trading days to close at 7.2% relative to previous week’s close of 7.8%; average yield fell 60bps w/w. Across the term structure, the market sustained a bullish streak at the long and medium end of the curve with average yield falling 93bps and 74bps w/w respectively. However, average yield on the short term maturities rose 2bp w/w, suggesting investors need for higher return.

At the primary market, heavy demand for bonds enabled the DMO to significantly cut stop rates by an average of 190bps across the four re-opening instruments auctioned during the week. JANUARY 2026, MARCH 2035, JULY 2045 and MARCH 2050 were offered with respective size of ₦25.0 billion, ₦42.0 billion, ₦75.0 billion and ₦35.0 billion. All instruments were 2.9x, 1.7x, 3.7x and 5.9x oversubscribed with MARCH 2035, JULY 2045 and MARCH 2050 over allotted. The respective marginal rates of the instruments were 6.0%, 9.5%, 9.8% and 10.0%, down 200bps, 150bps and 220bps for JANUARY 2026, MARCH 2035 and MARCH 2050 relative to closing rates at the previous month’s auction. All the instruments were issued at premium to par value and on the aggregate, a total of ₦130.0 billion was offered with subscription and allotment of ₦470.1 billion and ₦177.0 billion respectively.

The bullish momentum at the Sub-Saharan Eurobonds market continued last week as yields moderated on all of the 31 sovereign and 18 African Corporate Eurobond instruments we track, save for BAYPORT MANAGEMENT 2022 and ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL 2024 (yield rose 3bps and 6bps respectively w/w). At the SSA space, the Zambian instruments enjoyed the highest pricing with average yield moderating by 0.6% w/w; though, Kenyan and Nigerian baskets followed with 0.3% and 0.2% average yield moderation respectively. Average yield on the SSA Eurobond market moderated 0.2% w/w. Similarly, the African corporate Eurobonds experienced significant buy interest with the average yield tapering 44bps w/w. The SIBANYE GOLD 2023 and ESKOM HOLDINGS 2021 recorded the most buying interest with average yield falling 350bps and 229bps respectively. This week, yields are expected to fall at the domestic bond market while at the Eurobonds segment, we expect investors will continue to identify specific opportunities that present optimal returns amid uncertainty of market conditions.

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Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth

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The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.

The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.

He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.

“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”

Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”

The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.

With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.

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Economy

FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue 

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Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.

The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.

He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.

Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.

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Economy

CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate

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The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%. 

The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.

Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.

The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.

Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.

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