Economy
Nigeria net forex inflow stood at $5.75bn in October—CBN
Central Bank of Nigeria has said in its October 2019 monthly report that the Foreign exchange inflow into, and outflow from, the CBN in October 2019 were $4.10 billion and $4.77 billion, respectively, resulting in a net outflow of $0.67 billion. According to the CBN report “Aggregate foreign exchange inflow into, and outflow from, the economy were $10.89 billion and $5.14 billion, respectively, resulting in a net inflow of $5.75 billion. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the authorised dealers amounted to $2.79 billion, in the review period, compared with $2.80 billion in the preceding month”.
It said that “The average exchange rate of the Naira at the inter-bank, the BDC segment and the “investors” and “exporters” window were N306.96/US$, N359.00/US$ and N362.38/US$, respectively, in October 2019, compared with N306.92/US$, N359.00/US$ and N362.28/US$ in September 2019. The gross external reserves was $39.60 billion at end- October 2019, compared with $40.70 billion at end-September 2019. The major international economic developments and meetings of importance to the domestic economy in the review month included: The 2019 Annual Meetings of the Board of Governors of the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held in Washington D.C., USA, from October 14- 20, 2019. The sideline meetings of the Group of Twenty-Four (G-24) countries were also held at the same period.
It said that “Domestic crude oil production was estimated at 1.93 mbd or 59.83 mb in October 2019. Crude oil export was estimated at 1.48 mbd or 45.88 mb, while the allocation of crude oil for domestic consumption was 0.45 mbd or 13.95 mb in the review month. The average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, the Bonny Light (37° API), fell by 6.4 per cent to $61.10 per barrel in October 2019”. According to the CBN “The end-period headline inflation, on year-on-year and twelve-month moving average bases, was estimated at 11.41 per cent and 11.31 per cent, respectively, in October 2019, compared with 11.24 per cent and 11.26 per cent, in September 2019.
The CBN said that Aggregate credit to the domestic economy (net), on month-on-month basis, grew by 4.8 per cent to N35,918.2 billion at end-September 2019, compared with the growth of 2.5 per cent and 7.0 per cent at the end of the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The development was attributed to the respective increase of 10.6 per cent and 2.6 per cent in net claims on the Federal Government and claims on the private sector. Relative to the level at end-December 2018, aggregate credit to the domestic economy (net), rose by 30.3 per cent, compared with the growth of 24.3 per cent and 1.9 per cent at end-August 2019 and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively.
Net claims on the Federal Government, on month-on-month basis, grew by 10.6 per cent to N10,452.2 billion at end-September 2019, compared with the growth of 3.4 per cent and 54.9 per cent at end-August 2019 and the corresponding period of 2018, respectively. The growth in net claims on the Federal Government reflected the increase in holdings of government securities by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Over the level at end-December 2018, net claims on the Federal Government rose significantly by 114.8 per cent, compared with the growth of 94.3 per cent at the end of the preceding month. Relative to the level at end-August 2019, banking system credit to the private sector rose by 2.6 per cent at end-September 2019, compared with the growth of 2.2 per cent apiece at the end of the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2018. The development was attributed to the 1.7 per cent and 9.0 per cent increase in claims on the core private sector and claims on the state and local government, respectively. Over the level
“At N894.09 billion, the estimated federally-collected revenue (gross) in October 2019 fell below both the monthly budget estimate of N1,246.07 billion and the preceding month’s receipt by 28.2 per cent and 0.9 per cent, respectively. The decline, relative to the monthly budget estimate, was attributed to shortfall in both oil and non-oil revenue. At N894.90 billion, the estimated federally-collected revenue (gross) in October 2019 fell short of the monthly budget estimate of N1,246.07 billion by 28.2 per cent. Oil Revenue Gross Non-Oil Revenue Gross Oil receipts, at N577.30 billion or 64.6 per cent of total revenue, was below the monthly budget estimate of N798.83 billion by 27.7 per cent. However, it exceeded the receipt of N467.58 billion in the preceding month by 23.5 per cent. The decrease in oil revenue relative to the monthly budget estimate was attributed to shut-ins and shut-downs at some NNPC terminals due to pipeline leakages and maintenance activities.
Similarly, at N316.79 billion or 35.4 per cent of total revenue, non-oil receipt was below the monthly budget estimate of N447.24 billion and the preceding month’s earning of N434.52 billion by 29.2 per cent and 27.1 per cent, respectively. The drop in collection, relative to the monthly budget estimate, was, due to the decline in revenue from Corporate Tax, VAT, Education Tax and Federal Government Independent Revenue” the apex bank said
According to the CBN “At N316.79 billion, non-oil receipts (gross) was lower than the monthly budget estimate by 29.2 per cent and constituted 35.4 per cent of total revenue. Of the total, N697.50 billion was retained in the Federation Account. The sums of N89.16 billion, N23.11 billion, and N2.33 billion were transferred to the VAT Pool Account, Federal Government Independent revenue, and “Others”, respectively, leaving a net balance of N582.90 billion for distribution to the three (3) tiers of government. Of this amount, the Federal Government received N279.98 billion, while the state and local governments received N142.01 billion and N109.49 billion, respectively. The balance of N51.42 billion was shared among the oil producing states as 13% Derivation Fund. Similarly, from the N89.16 billion transferred to the VAT Pool Account, the Federal Government received N13.37 billion, while the state and local governments received N44.58 billion and N31.21 billion, respectively. In addition, the sum of N0.95 billion was distributed in the month as Exchange Gain, with the Federal, state and local governments receiving N0.44 billion, N0.22 billion and N0.17 billion, respectively, while the 13% Derivation Fund received N0.12 billion. Overall, total allocation to the three (3) tiers of government in October 2019 amounted to N673.01 billion. This was below the monthly budget estimate of N1,090.67 billion and the preceding month’s allocation of N676.90 billion by 38.3 per cent and 0.6 per cent, respectively”.
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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