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Nigeria stock, money markets stable last week

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Last week the Nigerian financial markets maintain some level of stability. While the stock market sustained a positive outlook, the Naira exchange rate remain stable despite fall in oil prices. At the Nigerian Stock Exchange the equities market sustained a positive performance as the All-Share index gained 0.3 per cent w/w to close at 25,267.82 points. Consequently, market capitalisation advanced ₦32.9 billion to settle at ₦13.2 trillion while YTD loss improved to -5.9 per cent. Activity level improved as average volume and value traded rose 39.3 per cent and 41.6 per cent to 418.5 million units and ₦4.5 billion respectively. The most traded stocks by volume were FBNH (318.6m units), ZENITH  (161.7m units) and GUARANTY (160.1m units) while GUARANTY  (₦3.9bn), ZENITH  (₦2.0bn) and DANGCEM (₦1.8bn) led by value.

Performance across sectors was bullish w/w as 5 of 6 indices under our coverage gained, save the Oil & Gas index which lost 0.3 per cent. The Insurance and Industrial Goods indices topped the gainers, recording respective gains of 3.7 per cent and 3.1 per cent following price appreciation in MANSARD (+18.7%), CUSTODIAN (+7.7%) and BUACEMENT (+7.7%). Similarly, the Consumer Goods (+2.3%), AFR-ICT (+0.5%) and Banking (+0.4%) indices gained, following price upticks in GUINNESS (+12.7%), CADBURY (+10.2%), MTNN (+0.9%), STERLING (+3.0%) and FBNH (+2.9%).

Investor sentiment as measured by market breadth (advance/decline ratio) weakened to 1.6x from 6.8x last week as 32 stocks gained against the 20 that lost. NEIMETH (+31.4%), MANSARD (+18.7%) and CUTIX (+14.7%) recorded the best performance while REGALINS (-13.0%), LEARNAFRICA (-9.6%) and ETI (-8.9%) were the top losers. As a result of a long gaining streak, we see opportunities for bargain hunting next week.

At the foreign exchange Market the Naira remains stable despite marginal decline in oil prices. Crude oil prices bucked its 5-week gain, declining 2.3 per cent w/w to $34.84 due to reports of declining US fuel demand and worsening US-China trade relations. On the domestic front, the external reserves inched slightly higher by 2.1 per cent to $36.5 billion. The CBN spot rate closed flat at ₦361/$1.00. At the parallel market, naira appreciated ₦7.00 to close at ₦453.00/$1.00. At the Investors’ & Exporters’ (I&E) Window, the NAFEX rate depreciated 39kobo to settle at ₦386.33/ $1.00. Activity level in the I&E Window remained low, declining 52.5 per cent to $83.4 million from $175.6 million recorded in the previous week.

The total value of open contracts of the naira at the FMDQ Securities Exchange (SE) FX Futures Contract Market declined 9.8 per cent ($1.5bn) to $13.9 billion as the MAY 2020 instrument matured during the week. The JUNE 2020 instrument (contract price: ₦389.49) received the highest subscription of $436.8 million which took total value to $1.6 billion. On the other hand, the AUG 2020 instrument (contract price: ₦395.14) recorded the least subscription of $0.5m with a total value of $1.0bn. We expect exchange rates to remain range-bound across the different segments of the market as investors anticipate the resumption of FX sales by the CBN. Yields Trend lower in the Secondary Treasury Bills Market. Last  week, OBB and OVN opened at 15.0% and 15.6% respectively, same as previous week’s close of 15.0% and 15.6% as system liquidity stood at ₦112.4 billion. However, on Thursday, as OMO maturities worth ₦303.3 billion flooded the system, the rates trended lower to 2.7 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively. By the close of the week, OBB and OVN settled at 2.20 per cent and 3.00 per cent in that order as system liquidity closed at ₦204.3 billion.

At the primary market auction, the CBN issued instruments worth ₦59.4 billion across the term structure. The marginal rates across tenors closed at 2.45 per cent, 2.72 per cent and 4.02 per cent for the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day tenors respectively. Demand was tilted to the 128-day instrument with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.9x (Offer: ₦19.2bn; Subscription: ₦55.2bn; Sale: ₦19.2bn). Similarly, the 364-day and 91-day were also oversubscribed at 1.9x (Offer: ₦19.8bn; Subscription: ₦37.9bn; Sale: ₦19.8bn) and 1.8x (Offer: ₦20.4bn; Subscription: ₦37.5bn; Sale: ₦20.4bn) respectively.

The CBN also held an OMO auction on Thursday, offering a total of ₦160.0 billion across three instruments to keep liquidity in check in the face of huge maturities. Investors again preferred the long-term instruments as it recorded oversubscription with bid-to-cover ratio of 3.8x (Offer: ₦60.0 billion, Subscription: ₦230.3 billion; Sale: ₦60.0bn) while the short (Offer: ₦50.0bn, Subscription: ₦67.2bn; Sale: ₦4.0bn) and mid-term (Offer: ₦50.0bn, Subscription: ₦57.5bn; Sale: ₦50.0bn) bills were oversubscribed at 1.3x and 1.2x respectively. The 89-day, 194-day and 348-day instruments were issued at stop rates of 7.00%, 8.75% and 9.90% respectively, significantly lower than previous auction rate at 11.50%, 11.54% and 12.71%.

The secondary market returned bullish on 2 of 3 trading sessions, after a 2-day Eid-el-Fitr break, following improved liquidity from OMO maturities. Hence, average yield declined 32bps w/w to 10.1% as demand continued to soar. Across tenors, the short and mid-end of the curve had the most buying interest following a 44bps and 40bps drop in yield w/w respectively while yields at the long-end of the curve dipped 10bps.  The bullish performance in the SSA Eurobonds space was persistent as average yield fell 16bps w/w. The Zambia 2022 and 2027 instruments enjoyed the most buying interest, as their yields declined 273bps and 92bps w/w respectively. Meanwhile, yields on Nigerian 2047 and South African 2024 instruments climbed 19bps and 18bps w/w respectively. For African Corporate Eurobonds, the bullish run also continued as average yield dipped 13bps w/w. The SIBANYE GOLD 2023 and ESKOM HOLDINGS 2021 instruments led the laggards with a 150bps and 139bps rise in yields respectively. Conversely, yields on NEERG ENERGY and ZENITH 2022 instruments slipped 160bps and 108bps w/w respectively.  In the coming week, we expect yields in both the domestic bond and Eurobond markets to decline on the back of sustained increase in demand.

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15% petrol import tax requires strategic roll out – LCCI

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Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has stressed the need for a measured and strategic rollout of the 15 per cent petroleum import tax to ensure sustainable economic impact. The Director-General, LCCI, Dr Chinyere Almona, gave the advice in a statement on Monday in Lagos. Almona noted the recent decision by the Federal Government to impose a 15 per cent import tax on petrol and diesel, a move aimed at curbing import dependence and promoting local refining capacity.

She said while the policy direction aligned with the nation’s long-term objective of achieving energy self-sufficiency and naira strengthening, a strategic rollout was imperative. Almona said that Nigeria was already experiencing cost-of-living pressures, supply-chain, and inflation challenges and that the business community would be sensitive to further cost shocks. “The chamber recognises that discouraging fuel importation is a necessary step towards achieving domestic energy security, stimulating investment in local refineries, and deepening the downstream petroleum value chain.

“However, LCCI expresses concern about the current adequacy of local refining capacity to meet national demand. A premature restriction on imports, without sufficient domestic production, could lead to supply shortages, higher pump prices, and inflationary pressures across critical sectors,” she said. Almona called on the Federal Government to prioritise the full operationalisation and optimisation of local refineries, both public and private, including modular refineries and the recently revitalised major refining facilities. She said that a comprehensive framework for crude oil supply to these refineries in Naira rather than foreign exchange would significantly enhance cost efficiency, stabilise production, and strengthen the local value chain.

She said the chamber’s interest lied in a diversified downstream sector where multiple refineries, modular plants, and logistics firms thrive. She urged government to resolve outstanding labour union issues and create an enabling environment that fostered industrial harmony and private sector confidence.

According to her, ensuring clarity, consistency, and transparency in the implementation of the new tax regime will be crucial in preventing market distortions and sustaining investor trust. “While the reform is justified from an industrial policy standpoint, its success depends on practical implementation, robust safeguards, and parallel reforms to alleviate cost burdens on businesses and consumers. With local capacity not yet established, this tax will increase the cost of fuels as long as imports continue. Government needs to address the inhibiting factors against local production and refining before imposing this levy to discourage imports and support local production,” she said.

Almona recommended that the implementation of the tax policy be postponed. She advised that during the transition period government demonstrate its commitment through action by empowering local refiners through an efficient crude-for-Naira supply chain that ensured sufficient crude. “With this, refiners can boost their refining capacity with a stable supply of crude and adequately meet domestic demand at competitive rates. At this point, the imposition of an import tax will directly discourage importation and boost demand for the locally refined products,” she said.

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Update: Sanwo-Olu, others harp on stronger private sector role to drive AfCFTA success

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Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State has urged the private sector to take a stronger, more coordinated role in driving the successful implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Sanwo-Olu, who made the call at the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria High-Level Business Forum, held on Thursday in Lagos, said that the agreement holds the key to transforming Africa into a globally competitive economic powerhouse. The theme of the forum is “Mobilising Africa’s Private Sector for AfCFTA Towards Africa’s Economic Development Amid Global Uncertainty”.

It brought together policymakers, business leaders, and development experts from across the continent. Sanwo-Olu was represented by the Lagos State Commissioner for Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment, Mrs Folashade Ambrose-Medebem. The governor said AfCFTA had the potential to lift millions of Africans out of poverty, but only if the continent’s business community seized the opportunity to scale production and integrate value chains across borders. “Governments can negotiate tariffs and treaties, but businesses must produce, export, invest, and believe in cross-border possibilities.

The private sector is the true engine of trade and industrialisation; without it, AfCFTA will remain a document and not a driver of development,” Sanwo-Olu said. He said that Lagos State had continued to create an enabling business environment through deliberate investments in infrastructure, logistics and technology, all designed to enhance productivity and trade efficiency. “From our vibrant tech ecosystem in Yaba to the Lekki Deep Sea Port and the expanding industrial corridors of the state, we are building a Lagos that supports trade, innovation, and investment,” he added. The governor stressed the need to empower Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which he described as “the lifeblood of Africa’s economy”.

He said access to finance, mentorship, and digital tools remained essential for their growth. “Through the Lagos State Employment Trust Fund (LSETF), we have supported thousands of entrepreneurs with training and access to funding. When SMEs thrive, our communities grow, jobs are created, and the promise of AfCFTA becomes real,” Sanwo-Olu noted. In his goodwill message, Dr Abdulrashid Yerima, President of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), called on African governments to align policy frameworks with the realities of the private sector to ensure the success of AfCFTA.

Yerima said Africa’s shared prosperity depended on how effectively the continent could mobilise its entrepreneurs and innovators to take advantage of the 1.4 billion-strong continental market. “As private sector leaders, the employers of labour and creators of opportunity, we must move from aspiration to achievement, from potential to performance. AfCFTA is not just an agreement; it is Africa’s blueprint for collective economic independence,” he said. He emphasised the importance of strengthening cooperation among business coalitions, cooperatives, and industrial clusters to ensure that micro and small enterprises benefit from cross-border trade opportunities. “No SME can scale alone in a continental market.

We must build strong business networks that allow small enterprises to grow into regional champions,” he stressed. Yerima further encouraged African nations to adopt global best practices and digital frameworks, such as the OECD Digital for SMEs (D4SME) initiative, to improve access to knowledge, technology, and markets. Also speaking at the event, Mr Samuel Dossou-Aworet, President of the African Business Roundtable (ABR), urged African leaders to fully harness AfCFTA’s opportunities to build inclusive and sustainable economies. Dossou-Aworet noted that while Africa was currently the world’s second-fastest-growing region after Asia, sustained growth would require greater industrialisation and investment in human capital.

“The entry into force of the AfCFTA has expanded Africa’s investment frontiers. Where once our markets were fragmented, we now have a unified platform for trade and production. But growth must be inclusive, not just in numbers, but in impact on people’s lives,” he noted. Citing data from the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dossou-Aworet observed that 12 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2025 are African, including Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal. However, he cautioned that Africa’s GDP growth of around four per cent remained below the seven per cent threshold needed to significantly reduce poverty. “We must ensure that growth translates into better jobs, infrastructure, and access to opportunities for women and youth,” he stressed. He also called for innovative financing models to bridge Africa’s infrastructure gap and improve competitiveness in the global market.

“Africa needs market access and trade facilitation mechanisms to enable its products to reach global markets. Access to affordable capital is key, and our financial systems must evolve to support trade,” he added. Dossou-Aworet reaffirmed the African Business Roundtable’s commitment to supporting enterprise development and promoting Africa as a prime destination for investment. “This is Africa’s moment. If we work together, government, business, and citizens, we will build an Africa that competes confidently in the global economy and delivers prosperity for its people.”

The forum, convened by the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria, brought together regional and international partners to strengthen collaboration between public and private sectors in advancing AfCFTA’s goals. Chairman of the group, Chief J.K. Randle, commended the participation of leading business executives and policymakers, saying it reflected Africa’s readiness to take ownership of its economic destiny. Randle said, “We can no longer rely on external forces to drive our growth. The private sector must rise as the torchbearer of Africa’s transformation under AfCFTA.” He added that the forum would continue to serve as a platform for dialogue, knowledge exchange, and action planning to position African enterprises at the centre of global trade.

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First ever China–Europe Cargo transit completed via the Arctic route

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The first-ever container transit from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) arrived at the British port of Felixstowe on October 13, 2025. The voyage marked a breakthrough in developing the NSR as a sustainable and high-tech transport corridor connecting Asia and Europe. The development of this Arctic route reflects the steady expansion of global trade flows — an evolution that reaches every continent, including Africa, where maritime industries and energy corridors continue to expand.
The ship carrying nearly 25,000 tonnes of cargo departed from Ningbo on September 23 and entered the NSR on October 1. Navigation and information support was provided by Glavsevmorput, a subsidiary of Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation. The Arctic leg of the voyage took 20 days, cutting transit time almost by half compared with traditional southern routes. This new pathway complements existing ones, creating broader opportunities for efficient and sustainable logistics worldwide.
The Northern Sea Route is developing rapidly, becoming a viable and efficient global logistics route. This is facilitated by various factors, including the development of advanced technologies, the construction of new-generation nuclear icebreakers, and growing interest from international shippers. Working in the Arctic is challenging but we are transforming these challenges into results. Along with the main priority of ensuring the safety of navigation on the Northern Sea Route, managing the speed and time of passage along the route is becoming an important task for us today,” noted Rosatom State Corporation Special Representative for Arctic Development Vladimir Panov.
The Northern Sea Route, spanning about 5,600 km, links the western part of Eurasia with the Asia-Pacific region. In 2024, cargo turnover reached 37.9 million tonnes, surpassing the previous year’s record by more than 1.6 million. Container traffic between Russia and China doubled compared to 2023, and by mid-2025, 17 container voyages had already been completed, moving 280,000 tonnes — a 59% increase year-on-year.
The expansion of this Arctic transport route is becoming part of a broader global effort to strengthen connectivity and diversify supply chains. For Africa and the wider Global South these developments demonstrate how innovation in logistics can stimulate new opportunities for trade, technology exchange, and sustainable growth. As new corridors emerge, the world’s regions are becoming more closely linked — not in competition, but in collaboration — shaping a more resilient and interconnected global economy.

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