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Nigeria to spend 92kobo of every Naira of revenue on interest payments in 2022—IMF

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International Monetary Fund IMF, has said that Nigeria will in 2022 spend 92 kobo of every Naira it earned in 2022 to service its mounting debt profile. This means that the country will have just 8kobo of every Naira earned for development purposes. IMF in its Article IV consultation report said that the Federal Government’s gross debt interest payments is projected to grow by 92 per cent  in 2022 from 85.5 per cent in 2021. As at the end of September 2021, debt-servicing-to-revenue ratio stood at 76%, implying that 76 kobo out of every N1 earned by the government in 2021 was spent on payment of interest on debts. IMF’s latest statement estimates the debt-servicing-to-consolidated revenue (total revenues of the government and its agencies) for 2021 and 2022 at 29% and 32.8% respectively.

IMF in the latest report said the projections were sourced from Nigerian authorities and its staff estimates and projections. In a table titled, ‘Nigeria Federal Government Operations, 2017–26,’ the IMF said Federal Government’s debt is expected to grow to N70.85 trillion in 2022, N83.17trillion in 2023, N97.80trillion in 2024, N115.38trillion in 2025, and N136.11trillion in 2026. The IMF expects the country’s revenues and grants in the year to cap at 7% of total output. Last year’s rate was estimated at 7.4%, which is much higher than 6.3% achieved in 2020. It said Nigeria’s economy is recovering from a historic downturn benefitting from government policy support, rising oil prices and international financial assistance. The IMF said, “Nigeria’s level of public debt increased sharply last year due to the COVID-19 crisis. Public debt had been on an increasing path in the last decade reaching 29 per cent of GDP in 2019 from 9% in 2009, driven by primary deficits as weak non-oil revenue mobilisation failed to compensate for falling oil revenues.

“In 2020, the sharp decline in oil revenues increased public debt further to 35 per cent of GDP. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase in the medium term to 43 per cent of GDP, despite favourable growth-interest rate dynamics. Gross financing needs are expected to increase to 8.9 per cent of GDP in 2021 from 7.3% in 2020, and to 11.4% in the medium term.”

IMF said “despite interest payments accounting for only 2% of GDP in 2020, interest payments accounted for 89 per cent of the Federal Government’s income, indicating a lack of domestic revenue mobilisation potential. The government’s interest-to-revenue ratio is likely to drop somewhat to roughly 86 percent in 2021 before rising to 139 percent by 2026, according to the report. Government spending is expected to climb by 69.91 percent from N17.24 trillion in 2022 to N29.29 trillion in 2026, according to the Washington-based Multilateral Institution. It also projects government expenditures of N18.57trillion in 2023, N21.51trillion in 2024, N25.24 trillion in 2025, and N29.29 trillion in 2026. Recurrent expenditure will account for most of government’s spending, rising to N13.59trillion in 2022, N14.69trillion in 2023, N17.47 trillion in 2024, N20.67trillion in 2025, and N24.12trillion in 2026.

While capital expenditure will account for a fraction of the spending, accounting for N3.65trillion in 2022, N3.88trillion in 2023, N4.04trillion in 2024, N4.57trillion in 2025, and N5.18trillion in 2026. Even as spending rises, government revenue is expected to fall short of spending. Total government revenue is predicted to reach N5.23 trillion in 2022, N6.25 trillion in 2023, N6.87 trillion in 2024, N7.66 trillion in 2025, and N8.57 trillion in 2026, according to the IMF. The CBN is expected to finance the Federal Government’s spending with N12.01 trillion in 2022, N12.32 trillion in 2023, N14.64 trillion in 2024, N17.58 trillion in 2025, and N20.73 trillion in 2026, resulting in a budget deficit of N34.57 trillion over the five years.

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Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth

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The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.

The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.

He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.

“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”

Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”

The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.

With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.

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Economy

FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue 

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Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.

The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.

He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.

Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.

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Economy

CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate

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The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%. 

The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.

Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.

The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.

Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.

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