Finance
Nigerian capital market worst in the world in 2009, GDP may drop to 3.6% — BMI
By Omoh Gabriel
The Nigerian Stock market has been described as the worst performing stock market in the World for the Month of January 2009 stating that the country’s Gross Domestic Product GDP will drop from 6.3 per cent in 2008 to 3.6 per cent in 2009. According to a report published by a London based research company Business Monitor International, which advises foreign investor where to invest, it said “you could not have done much worse than investing in the Nigerian stock market in 2009. With the Lagos All-Share Index down 27.5 per cent since January 1, it’s the worst performing equity index in the world so far this year. Add to that a 9.2 per cent drop in the currency, and you are looking at a third of your investment gone in one month”.
Only yesterday the Speaker of the House of Representatives Dimeji Bankole painted a gloomy picture of the stocks market before the captains of industry. The value of the market, he said, has dropped from N14 trillion to N5 trillion due to the global financial meltdown. He said the greatest challenge to the financial sector in Nigeria and elsewhere was the global financial crisis. Bankole said there was a need for innovative and “serious hard creative thinking” to solve the problem. He said: “Our experience has indicated that the global turmoil has affected Nigeria‚Äôs economy in the areas of capital flight, exchange rate of the naira, upward pressure on inflation and dwindling foreign reserves.”
According to the monthly report released yesterday “With the price of oil down more than $100 per barrel from the July peak, it is not particularly surprising that sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest until recently producer has run into problems. The lack of oil money circulating through the economy is sure to impact businesses. Business Monitor International is forecasting GDP growth of just 3.6 per cent in 2009, from 6.3 per cent in 2008, and risks are to the downside, and also make available less liquidity for investment in the market.
“But it is not just oil that is giving the stock market a headache. Foreign investors largely packed up and left after the capital market authorities imposed a maximum downside limit of 1 per cent on the index back in August 2008 which had the effect of seeing the market fall by a small margin for 34 straight trading days before the limit was removed.
“Given the rise in global risk aversion, I do not see a return of these investors in the near future. More worryingly, I have warned before about the looming potential for crisis in the banking sector, shares of which make up a not insubstantial 48.6 per cent of the exchange’s total market capitalisation. Should some of the banks go down, there could be significantly more downside ahead.
The report further said “In that spirit, I am keeping my eye on 20,000 first, the market closed yesterday at 22,737, with a drop to 12,000 increasingly possible, especially if there’s trouble with the banks. If the index does end up hitting 12,000, that would put its total losses from the March 2008 peak to 81.9 per cent. That’s not as bad as the 93.6 per cent drop seen in the Icelandic index, but it’s still catastrophic”.
According to BMI “The swift turnaround in commodity prices, coupled with the growing international financial crisis, is likely to lead to an economic slowdown and a narrowing of the current account surplus in 2009. Should oil prices continue to fall, there is a risk for the current account to flip into deficit and economic growth to slow substantially more. Conversely, a rapid rebound to high levels presents upside risks to growth, the current account surplus and government revenues. On the political front, violence in the Niger Delta has recently accelerated, and there is potential for conflict to remain at elevated levels in the months ahead. It said that significant drop in oil prices could increase the government’s incentive to implement a strategy to reduce violence, but that a rise in oil prices would bode poorly for the region’s stability.
‚ÄúWith the average price of oil forecast to drop in 2009 before increasing in 2010, we are projecting a corresponding drop and recovery in real GDP growth, primarily on the back of swings in investment. Declining oil exports will also negatively impact the current account in 2009, though this is likely to be partially offset by diminished oil company revenue outflows. At the same time, fiscal laxity, cessation of price controls, and unscheduled Central Bank of Nigeria interest rate cuts could stoke inflation in the early part of 2009″ the report said.
Finance
Afreximbank successfully closed its second Samurai Bond transactions, raising JPY 81.8bn or $527m
African Export-Import Bank said it has successfully closed its second Samurai bond transaction, securing a total of JPY 81.8 billion (approx. USD 527 million) through Regular and Retail Samurai Bonds offerings.
The execution surpasses the Bank’s 2024 debut issuance size, attracting orders from more than 100 institutional and retail investors, marking a renewed demonstration of strong Japanese investor confidence in the Bank’s credit and its growing presence in the yen capital markets.
On 18 November, Afreximbank priced a JPY 45.8 billion 3-year tranche in the Regular Samurai market following a comprehensive sequence of investor engagement activities leveraging Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD9), including Non-Deal Roadshows (NDRs) in Tokyo, Kanazawa, Kyoto, Shiga and Osaka, a Global Investor Call, and a two-day soft-sounding process which tested investor appetite across 2.5-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities.
With market expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate increase, investor demand concentrated in shorter tenors, resulting in a focused 3-year tranche during official marketing.
The tranche attracted strong participation from asset managers (22.3%), life insurers (15.3%), regional corporates, and high-net-worth investors (39.7%).
Concurrently, Afreximbank priced its second Retail Samurai bond on 18 November, a JPY 36.0 billion 3-year tranche, more than double the inaugural JPY 14.1 billion Retail Samurai issuance completed in November 2024.
The 2025 Retail Samurai bond also marks the first Retail Samurai bond issued in Japan in 2025.
Following the amendment to Afreximbank’s shelf registration on 7 November 2025, SMBC Nikko conducted an extensive seven-business-day demand survey through its nationwide branch network, followed by a six-business-day bond offering period.
The offering benefited from strong visibility supported by Afreximbank’s investor engagement across the country, including the Bank’s participation at TICAD9, where Afreximbank hosted the Africa Finance Seminar to introduce Multinational Development Bank’s mandate in Africa and its credit profile to key Japanese institutional investors.
MBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as Sole Lead Manager and Bookrunner for both the Regular and Retail Samurai transactions. Chandi Mwenebungu, Afreximbank’s Managing Director, Treasury & Markets and Group Treasurer, commented:
“We are pleased with the successful completion of our second Samurai bond transactions, which marked a significant increase from our inaugural Retail Samurai bond in 2024, and which reflect the growing depth of our relationship with Japanese investors.
The strong demand, both in the Regular and Retail offerings, demonstrates sustained confidence in Afreximbank’s credit and mandate.
We remain committed to deepening our engagement in the Samurai market through regular investor activities and continued collaboration with our Japanese partners.”
Finance
Ecobank unveils SME bazaar: a festive marketplace for local entrepreneurs
Ecobank Nigeria, a member of Africa’s leading pan-African banking group, has announced the launch of the Ecobank SME Bazaar—a two-weekend festive marketplace designed to celebrate local creativity, empower entrepreneurs, and give Lagos residents a premium shopping experience this Detty December. The Bazaar will hold on 29–30 November and 6–7 December at the Ecobank Pan African Centre (EPAC), Ozumba Mbadiwe Road, Victoria Island, Lagos. Speaking ahead of the event, Omoboye Odu, Head of SMEs, Ecobank Nigeria, reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to supporting small and medium-sized businesses, describing them as the heartbeat of Nigeria’s economy. She explained that the Ecobank SME Bazaar was created to enhance visibility for entrepreneurs, expand market access, and support sustainable business growth.
According to her, “This isn’t just a market—it’s a vibrant hub of culture, commerce, and connection. From fresh farm produce to trendy fashion, handcrafted pieces, lifestyle products, and delicious food and drinks, the Ecobank SME Bazaar promises an unforgettable experience for both shoppers and participating SMEs. Whether you’re shopping for festive gifts, hunting for unique finds, or soaking in the Detty December energy, this is the place to be.” Ms. Odu added that participating businesses will enjoy increased brand exposure, deeper customer engagement, and meaningful networking opportunities—making the Bazaar a strong platform for both festive-season sales and long-term business growth. The event is powered by Ecobank in partnership with TKD Farms, Eko Marche, Leyyow, and other SME-focused organisations committed to building sustainable enterprises.
Finance
16 banks have recapitalised before deadline—CBN
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said that16 banks have so far met the new capital requirements for their various licences, some four months before the March 31, 2026 deadline. The apex bank also indicated that 27 other banks have raised capital through various methods in one of the most extensive financial sector reforms since 2004. Addressing journalists at the end of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, CBN Governor Mr Olayemi Cardoso said the banking recapitalisation was going on orderly, consistent with the regulator’s expectations. He said, “We are monitoring developments, and indications show the process is moving in the right direction.” Nigeria has 44 deposit-taking banks, including seven commercial banks with international authorisation, 15 with national authorisation, four with regional authorisation, four non-interest banks, six merchant banks, seven financial holding companies and one representative office.
Cardoso explained that eight commercial banks had met the N500 billion capital requirement as of July 22, 2024, rising to 14 by September of the same year. The number has now increased to 16 as the industry continues to race toward full compliance. He said that the reforms would reinforce the resilience of Nigerian banks both within the country and across the continent. “We are building a financial system that will be fit for purpose for the years ahead. Many Nigerian banks now operate across Africa and have been innovative across different markets. These new buffers will better equip them to manage risks in the multiple jurisdictions where they operate,” Cardoso said. According to him, the reforms would strengthen the financial sector’s capability to support households and businesses. He said, “Ultimately, this benefits Nigerians—our traders, our businesses and our citizens—who operate across those regions. “It should give everyone comfort to know that Nigerian banks with deep local understanding are present to support them. Commercial banks are also creating their own buffers through the ongoing recapitalisation.”
He added that the apex bank considered several factors in determining the new capital thresholds, including prevailing macroeconomic conditions, stress test results and the need for stronger risk buffers. He reassured on the regulator’s commitment to strict oversight as the consolidation progresses. “We will rigorously enforce our ‘fit and proper’ criteria for prospective new shareholders, senior management, and board members of banks, and proactively monitor the integrity of financial statements, adequacy of financial resources, and fair valuation of banks’ post-merger balance sheets,” Cardoso said. He said the CBN remained confident that the banking system would emerge stronger at the conclusion of the recapitalization exercise, with institutions better prepared to support Nigeria’s economic transformation Banks have up till March 31, 2026 to beef up their minimum capital base to the new standard set by the apex bank. Under the new minimum capital base, CBN uses a distinctive definition of the new minimum capital base for each category of banks as the addition of share capital and share premium, as against the previous use of shareholders’ funds.
While most banks have shareholders’ funds in excess of the new minimum capital base, their share premium and share capital significantly fall short of the new minimum definition. The CBN had in March 2024 released its circular on review of minimum capital requirement for commercial, merchant and non-interest banks. The apex bank increased the new minimum capital for commercial banks with international affiliations, otherwise known as mega banks, to N500 billion; commercial banks with national authorisation, N200 billion and commercial banks with regional license, N50 billion. Others included merchant banks, N50 billion; non-interest banks with national license, N20 billion and non-interest banks with regional license will now have N10 billion minimum capital. The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. Under the guidelines for the recapitalisation exercise, banks are expected to subject their new equity funds to capital verification before the clearance of the allotment proposal and release of the funds to the bank for onwards completion of the offer process and addition of the new capital to its capital base. The CBN is the final signatory in a tripartite capital verification committee that included the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC). The committee is saddled with scrutinising new funds being raised by banks under the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise.
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