Economy
Nigeria’s public debt rises to N152.4trn H1 2025
Nigeria’s total public debt has climbed to N152.40 trillion as of June 30, 2025, up from N149.39 trillion at the end of March. This is according to the latest figures from the Debt Management Office (DMO). The figure represents a quarterly increase of N3.01 trillion, equivalent to 2.01%, while in dollar terms the debt stock rose from $97.24 billion to $99.66 billion, reflecting a 2.49% increase. According to official data Nigeria’s external debt stood at $46.98 billion, N71.85 trillion as at June 2025, up from $45.98 billion, N70.63 trillion, in March. Data released by Debt Management Office showed that multilateral lenders remain the largest creditors, with a combined exposure of $23.19 billion, accounting for 49.4 per cent of external obligations. The World Bank, through the International Development Association, is the single largest creditor with $18.04 billion concessional outstanding facility.
A break down of the data further showed that bilateral loans made up $6.20 billion, led by the Export-Import Bank of China at $4.91 billion, followed by smaller exposures to France, Japan, India, and Germany. Commercial borrowings remained sizeable at $17.32 billion, almost entirely Eurobonds, which account for 36.9 per cent of the external portfolio. A further $268.9 million was owed under syndicated facilities and commercial bank loans. The reliance on Eurobonds and other commercial instruments exposes Nigeria to global market volatility, while the heavy concentration in multilateral loans indicates continued dependence on concessional financing.
According to DMO, domestic borrowing accounted total obligations of N80.55 trillion by June, an increase of N1.79 trillion from N78.76 trillion in March. Federal Government bonds dominated the portfolio with N60.65 trillion, representing 79.2 per cent of total domestic debt. This category included N36.52 trillion in Naira-denominated bonds, N22.72 trillion in securitised Ways and Means advances, and N1.40 trillion in dollar bonds.
Treasury bills accounted for N12.76 trillion, or 16.7 per cent, while Sukuk issues stood at N1.29 trillion. Smaller instruments included savings bonds worth N91.53 billion, green bonds of N62.36 billion, and promissory notes totalling N1.73 trillion. The promissory notes include both Naira and foreign currency-denominated liabilities converted at the June CBN exchange rates. The growing stock of securitised Ways and Means advances underlines the fiscal stress the government faces, even as it leans on bond markets to finance budget deficits.
Of the N152.40 trillion debt stock, the Federal Government was responsible for N141.08 trillion, which amounts to 92.6% of the total. This was made up of N64.49 trillion in external obligations and N76.59 trillion in domestic debt. For the first time in 2025, the DMO provided a separate breakdown of external debt for states and the Federal Capital Territory. Their combined obligations were reported at $4.81 billion (N7.36 trillion), while their domestic debts stood at N3.96 trillion. In total, subnational governments owed N11.32 trillion, accounting for 7.4% of the national debt stock. The DMO explained that external debt was converted to Naira using the Central Bank’s official exchange rate of N1,529.21 to the dollar as of June 30, 2025. The weaker exchange rate compared with earlier in the year magnified the Naira value of foreign borrowings, adding to the rise in the overall stock.
This effect highlights the vulnerability of Nigeria’s debt portfolio to currency depreciation. Even in periods where fresh borrowing is limited, the conversion of dollar and other foreign currency debts at weaker naira levels inflates the total. Although Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains within international thresholds, the pace of growth and the increasing cost of servicing loans continue to raise questions about sustainability. Nigeria’s debt trajectory underscores the need for stronger revenue mobilisation and fiscal consolidation. Without significant progress in expanding the tax base and reducing expenditure inefficiencies, debt service could continue to crowd out investments in infrastructure and social spending.
Economy
Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Economy
FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
Economy
CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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