Nigeria’s trade balance weakened in Q4’25, with the surplus narrowing to N1.71tn

Nigeria’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to N1.71tn in Q4 ‘25, down from N5.85tn in Q3’ 25 and N3.42tn in Q4 ‘24, reflecting weaker export earnings alongside a modest increase in imports during the quarter.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), total merchandise trade declined to N36.21tn, representing a 1.07% year-on-year (y/y) and 8.94% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) contraction. Exports fell to N18.96tn, declining 5.25% y/y and 16.88% q/q, while imports rose to N17.25tn, increasing 3.98% y/y and 1.73% q/q. On a full-year basis, Nigeria maintained a strong external position, recording a trade surplus of N17.77tn in 2025, representing a 5.51% increase y/y.

Total merchandise trade rose to N152.47tn, growing 10.46% y/y, with exports increasing by 9.92%y/y to N85.13tn and imports rising by 11.15% y/y to N67.35tn. However, the pace of expansion in both exports and imports remained below the growth recorded in 2024, largely reflecting reduced forex-driven valuation effects compared to the prior year.

Nigeria’s export earnings weakened in Q4’25, declining both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Total exports fell to N18.96tn, reflecting a 5.25% y/y decline and a 16.88% q/q contraction. The slowdown likely reflects softer crude oil export receipts during the quarter, as well as base effects from stronger export performance recorded earlier in the year.

Crude oil remained the dominant driver of export earnings in Q4’ 25, totalling N9.70tn and accounting for 51.17% of total exports during the quarter. However, crude oil export receipts declined by 24.24% q/q compared to Q3’ 25 and 29.60% y/y relative to Q4’ 24, reflecting the combined effects of production fluctuations and movements in global oil prices.

Specifically, average crude oil production declined to 1.42mbpd in Q4 from 1.44mbpd in Q3, while oil prices fell to $65.53/bbl from $71.31/bbl over the same period.

Despite the quarterly decline, crude oil remains the largest component of the export basket, underscoring the economy’s continued reliance on oil-sector performance.

Nonetheless, recent data suggests a gradual shift in export composition, as the share of crude oil in total exports declined from 80.64% in 2023 to 55.72% in 2025, while non-oil exports increased from 8.74% to 14.51%.

Over this period, average crude oil production increased from 1.23mbpd in 2023 to 1.45mbpd in 2025, although average oil prices declined from US$85.16/bbl to US$70.93/bbl.

At the same time, the contribution of non-oil sectors improved, with agricultural exports rising from 3.46% of total exports in 2023 to 5.96% in 2025, while raw materials increased from 2.40% to 4.81%.

During the quarter, Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.42mbpd, remaining below its OPEC quota of about 1.5mbpd, which likely constrained potential export earnings.

Overall, the continued dominance of crude oil in Nigeria’s export structure highlights the sensitivity of the trade balance to oil-sector dynamics, particularly changes in production levels and international oil prices.

Improvements in production stability, pipeline security, and output levels will be critical to sustaining export growth, even as the gradual rise in non-oil exports signals early progress toward a more diversified export base.

Non-crude oil exports, comprising non-oil products and other petroleum-related exports, reached N9.26tn in Q4’ 25, accounting for 48.83% of total exports during the quarter.

This represents a 7.46% q/q decline from Q3’ 25 but a 48.61% y/y increase compared to Q4’ 24, indicating a notable improvement in non-crude export performance relative to the same period last year.

Across major components, agricultural exports grew by 68% q/q, although they declined by 14.11% y/y, likely reflecting stronger seasonal export shipments of commodities such as cocoa, sesame, and soybeans, despite remaining below levels recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

Raw material exports increased by 14.70% q/q and 77.69% y/y, supported by stronger external demand and increased shipments of industrial raw materials such as natural rubber, timber products, and hides and skins.

Similarly, solid mineral exports rose by 15.90% q/q and 92.48% y/y, reflecting stronger demand for Nigeria’s mineral resources, including lead, zinc, and other metallic ores.

In contrast, energy exports declined slightly by 1.41% q/q but remained 18.02% higher y/y, while manufactured exports contracted sharply by 56.73% q/q and 14.32% y/y, reflecting weaker export shipments amid persistent structural challenges in the manufacturing sector, particularly elevated energy and production costs.

Other petroleum products also declined by 13% q/q, despite recording a robust 80.45% y/y increase. Overall, the mixed performance across segments reflects strong growth in raw materials and solid mineral exports, which partly offset weaknesses in manufactured exports and other petroleum-related products during the quarter.

Total imports reached N17.25tn in Q4’ 25, increasing by 1.73% q/q from Q3’ 25 and 3.98% y/y compared to Q4’ 24. On a full-year basis, imports grew by 11.51%, although this remained below the growth recorded in 2024, suggesting a moderation in import expansion.

Across major categories, agricultural imports rose by 30.24% q/q and 31.74% y/y, indicating stronger demand for food products and agricultural inputs. Raw material imports increased by 16.59% q/q and 11.50% y/y, reflecting sustained demand for industrial inputs to support domestic production. Solid mineral imports surged by 86.77% q/q and 26.12% y/y, likely reflectiCoronation Merchant Bank

Meanwhile, energy imports grew by 38.75% q/q but declined by 30.62% y/y, suggesting lower energy import dependence
relative to the previous year. Manufactured goods imports also increased by 13.31% q/q and 3.89% y/y, reflecting moderate
growth in demand for finished and intermediate goods. On a full-year basis, agricultural imports increased by 25.71%, raw
materials by 19.01%, manufactured goods by 19.41%, and solid mineral imports by 1.85%, while energy imports declined by
4.40%, highlighting a mixed trend in Nigeria’s import composition over the year.