Oil falls ahead of US announcement of new sanctions on Iran

Oil prices slipped more than $1 a barrel on Monday as investors took profits after ‌recent gains and awaited details of expected new U.S. sanctions on Iran, which could further disrupt supplies from the Middle East.

Brent crude futures were down $1.01, or 1.1%, to $93.38, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $85.64 a barrel, down $1.42, or 1.6%.

Both contracts posted a second consecutive weekly gain last week, rising more than 5%, as peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran stalled, constraining oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that once carried a fifth of global supplies.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is set to hold a press conference on Monday, has threatened to impose “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran. President Donald Trump has also threatened to impose sanctions on Iran’s trading partners.

“Should the pledged embargo be launched, oil supply from the region will fall,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga, adding that the U.S. would likely tighten its naval blockade against Iranian oil exports and that Iran could retaliate with fresh strikes against oil installations in the Middle East.

Iran has condemned U.S. plans to announce new sanctions and President Masoud Pezeshkian has called for a diplomatic solution. Pakistan’s army chief was visiting Tehran on Monday for mediation talks, ahead of the U.S. announcement.

Fewer than 20 commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz at the weekend, shipping data showed on Monday, ‌as Iranian and U.S. blockades restrict traffic through the chokepoint for energy shipments.

However, Iran has granted permission for a number of Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the strait following repeated requests from Baghdad, Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported on Saturday.

TotalEnergies Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne said the oil company was profitably moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz, with higher transport costs more than offset by steep discounts from crude producers. Iraq’s SOMO and QatarEnergy both offered crude for loading inside the strait in tenders, traders said.

“$93 per barrel Brent, rather than $120-150, is telling us that enough oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and from the Persian Gulf in general,” SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop told Reuters, adding that a turning point could be if Iran decided to actually close Hormuz with rockets and drones.

Brent has climbed back up to around $92 per barrel, from as low as $71 in June, due to inventory draws and a growing sense that Middle East disruptions can last longer, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.
The bank increased its Brent forecasts, projecting a peak at $100 in the fourth quarter. The International Energy Agency is not currently discussing a second release of oil from strategic reserves, its chief Fatih Birol said on Monday.