Oil falls on ample supply outlook, Venezuelan output prospects

Crude Oil prices fell on Tuesday on expectations of ample global supply amid weak demand, and as the market weighed the prospect of higher Venezuelan crude output following the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro.

Brent crude futures fell 0.5%, or 28 cents, to $61.48 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $58.00 a barrel, down 0.6% or 32 cents.

Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova, noted the oil price response to major geopolitical events, such as the U.S. military action in Venezuela and ongoing strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, had been surprisingly muted, suggesting fundamental demand-supply factors remained the key concern.

“From a supply perspective, the oil complex remains packed with barrels. According to the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, global crude supply continues to outpace consumption growth, pushing inventories higher and keeping downward pressure on prices,” she said.

Market participants polled by Reuters in December said they expected oil prices to be under pressure in 2026 due to growing supply and weak demand. Price pressure could be exacerbated by the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s leader on Saturday, increasing the chance of an end to a U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil and potentially leading to higher output.

Maduro pleaded not guilty in a New York court on Monday to narcotics charges. The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump plans to meet U.S. oil executives this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan oil production, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.

“I think if the Trump playbook even partially comes to pass, Venezuelan crude oil production should increase…should it increase, there will be more pressure on an already over-supplied market,” said Marex analyst Ed Meir.

Venezuela is a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and has the world’s largest oil reserves at about 303 billion barrels. However, its oil sector has long been in decline due in part to under-investment and U.S. sanctions. Its average output last year was 1.1 million barrels per day. Reuters