OPEC projects crude oil demand growth at 1.4 mb/d in 2025, 2026 

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has projected global oil demand growth rate at 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, with a similar growth rate expected in 2026. In its January 2025 report it projected a robust global economic expansion and healthy oil demand growth for 2025 and 2026. According to the report, demand in the region of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD region is expected to drive demand growth by accounting for 1.3 mb/d of the total increase in both 2025 and 2026.
“On a regional basis, OECD oil demand is forecast to expand by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, entirely from the Americas, while non-OECD oil demand is expected to witness growth of around 1.3 mb/d, mostly in India, China, Other Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.” Among other factors, the growth projection is hinged on an anticipated growth in the global economy which is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. OPEC said that the expected growth in the world economy is to be driven by steady growth in major economies, including the US, Eurozone, and Japan.
Non-OECD economies, particularly China and India, are also projected to sustain their robust growth, contributing significantly to global economic expansion. “This outlook assumes continued inflation normalization through 2026, providing support for further adjustments in monetary policies in major economies. The services sector is expected to drive global growth, alongside an expected gradual recovery in the industrial sector, despite prevailing uncertainties,” the report noted. The growth in global oil demand is expected to be driven by transportation fuels, particularly aviation and road mobility.
“Petrol requirements are also set to see support from steadily rising road mobility in major consuming countries and regions, such as China, the Middle East, India and the US. Both on-road diesel, including trucking, as well as industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries are expected to support diesel demand. Light distillates are projected to be supported by petrochemical capacity additions and margins, mostly in China and the Middle East,” the report added. On the supply side, non-OPEC liquids production is expected to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2025 and 2026, driven primarily by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. OPEC also reported that crude oil production by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) dropped by 14,000 barrels per day (tb/d) in December to an average of 40.65 mb/d.