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Oversupply could mute effects of wider Middle-East conflict on oil prices–WBG

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World Bank Group has said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook that “global commodity prices are set to tumble to a five-year low in 2025 amid an oil glut that is so large that it is likely to limit the price effects even of a wider conflict in the Middle East”. It said “Even so, overall commodity prices will remain 30% higher than they were in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic. Next year, the global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day, a glut that has been exceeded only twice before—during the pandemic-related shutdowns in 2020 and the 1998 oil-price collapse. The new oversupply partly reflects a major shift in China, where oil demand has essentially flatlined since 2023 amid a slowdown in industrial production and an increase in sales of electric vehicles and trucks powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG). In addition, several countries that are not part of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries or its allies (OPEC+) are expected to ramp up oil production. OPEC+ itself maintains significant spare capacity, amounting to 7 million barrels per day, almost double the amount on the eve of the pandemic in 2019.
“From 2024 through 2026, global commodity prices are projected to plummet by nearly 10%. Global food prices are set to fall 9% this year and an additional 4% in 2025 before levelling off. That would still leave food prices nearly 25% above the average level from 2015 through 2019. Energy prices are expected to drop by 6% in 2025 and an additional 2% in 2026. Falling food and energy prices should make it easier for central banks to control inflation. However, an escalation in armed conflicts could complicate that effort by disrupting energy supply and driving up food and energy prices. Falling commodity prices and better supply conditions can provide a buffer against geopolitical shocks,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President. “But they will do little to alleviate the pain of high food prices in developing countries where food-price inflation is double the norm in advanced economies. High prices, conflict, extreme weather, and other shocks have made more than 725 million people food insecure in 2024.”  Over the past year, conflict in the Middle East has brought significant volatility to oil prices—particularly because of concerns that the oil and gas infrastructure of major commodity producers could be damaged if the conflict were to intensify. Assuming the conflict does not intensify, the annual average price of Brent crude is expected to fall to a four-year low of $73 in 2025, down from $80 a barrel this year.
But the report also assesses what might happen if the conflict were to escalate, specifically if it resulted in reducing the global oil supply by 2%, or 2 million barrels per day, by the end of this year—a scale of disruption that occurred with the Libyan civil war in 2011 and the Iraq war in 2003. If a similar disruption were to recur, Brent prices would initially rise sharply to a peak of $92 a barrel. However, oil producers unaffected by the conflict could quickly respond to higher prices by boosting oil production. As a result, the price spike could be relatively short-lived, with the oil price averaging $84 a barrel in 2025. That would still be 15% above the baseline forecast for 2025 but only 5% above the 2024 average. “The good news is that the global economy appears to be in much better shape than before to cope with a significant oil shock,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group.
“That opens up some rare opportunities for policymakers in developing economies: first, declining commodity prices can provide a helpful complement to monetary policy to bring inflation back to targets; second, policymakers have a window to wind back costly fossil-fuel subsidies.” The average price of gold—a popular choice for investors seeking “safe haven”—is expected to hit a record this year, climbing 21% over the average in 2023. Gold holds a special status among assets, often rising in price during periods of geopolitical and policy uncertainty, including conflicts. Over the next two years, gold prices are expected to remain 80% higher than the average in the five years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, declining only slightly. The price of industrial metals is expected to remain steady in 2025-26, as weakness in China’s property sector is offset by tight supply conditions and rising demand for some metals from the energy transition. However, unexpected growth outcomes in China could prompt volatility in metals markets. A special focus section of the report examines why global commodity-price movements were so synchronised during and after the pandemic. It finds that commodity prices moved in tandem during the 2020-23 period because of global economic repercussions of the pandemic as well as large-scale commodity-specific shocks such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Synchronised price increases tend to lead to higher global inflation and lower economic growth. Over the past year or so, price movements have become less synchronised.

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Oil steady after Ukraine strike on Russian oil pipeline does not disrupt supply

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Oil prices were steady on Thursday, with the market focused on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil assets, while stalled peace talks tempered expectations of a deal restoring Russian oil flows. Brent crude rose 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $63.02 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 41 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.36. Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region, a Ukrainian military intelligence source said on Wednesday, the fifth attack on the pipeline that sends Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.

The pipeline operator and Hungary’s oil and gas company later said supplies were moving through the pipeline as normal. “Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase,” consultancy Kpler said in a research report.

This has pushed Russian refining throughput down to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, a 335,000 bpd year-on-year decline, with gasoline hit hardest and gasoil output also materially weaker,” the report added. The perception that progress on a peace plan for Ukraine was stalling also supported prices, after U.S. President Donald Trump’s representatives emerged from peace talks with the Kremlin with no specific breakthroughs on ending the war.

“War and politics, balanced against comfortable stocks, expected supply surplus, and OPEC’s market-share strategy, keep Brent in the $60–$70 range for now,” said PVM analysts. Previously, expectations of an end to the war had pressured prices lower, as traders anticipated a deal would allow Russian oil back into an already oversupplied global market.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude and fuel inventories rose last week as refining activity picked up, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week ended November 28, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an 821,000-barrel draw.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions to reflect market oversupply and production growth that is expected to outstrip demand.

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Army destroys seven illegal oil refining sites, arrest 4, recover 109,000 ltrs of stolen products 

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Soldiers from the 6 Division, Nigerian Army, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, have destroyed seven illegal crude oil refining sites in its sustained efforts in the Niger Delta Region. The soldiers during the operation arrested four suspects and recovered 109,000 liters of stolen petroleum products. Lieutenant Colonel Jonah Danjuma, Acting Deputy Director, 6 Division Army Public Relations, in a statement in Port Harcourt, said success was in a sustained operation against oil theft. Danjuma said: “In the latest operations conducted with other security agencies between 10 and 23 November 2025, several illegal refining sites were taken out, four suspected oil thieves were arrested with over 109,000 litres of stolen products recovered across the NDR. “These include over 88,000 litres of stolen crude oil and 21,355 litres of illegally refined Automotive Gasoline Oil (AGO). The total cost of the products recovered amounted to over One Hundred and Fifty Million Naira only.”

Danjuma disclosed that the operations were conducted in Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Delta State. He said: “Operations conducted in Rivers State around Okolomade in Ahoada West Local Government Area (LGA) led to the deactivation of three illegal refining sites, three big pots, four big receivers and three big coolants, with over 40,000 litres of stolen crude and 20,000 litres of illegally refined AGO recovered. At the fringes of the Imo River, troops discovered three illegal refining sites, eight drum pots, seven drum receivers, one fibre boat and over 14,700 litres of stolen crude around Asa, Obeakpo, Lekuma and Abiama in Oyigbo LGA”.

He said “Relatedly, following credible intelligence, troops stormed a compound at Abuloma in Okrika LGA, where they discovered about 1,050 sacks filled with over 32,000 litres of stolen crude. At Abonnema Creek in Akuku-Toru LGA, troops intercepted a Cotonou boat loaded with 25 sacks filled with over 1,000 litres of illegally refined AGO. Also, in Akwa Ibom State, troops conducted a raid on a suspected storage facility at Ikot Akpan, Ekparakwa along the Abak–Ikot Abasi road in Abak LGA. During the operations, over 520 litres of illegally refined AGO stored in a drum and ten jerricans, as well as several empty jerricans, were recovered.

In Delta State, troops conducted an operation at DAEWOO yard within Ekpan area in Uvwie LGA. On sighting troops, the suspected oil thieves fled into nearby creeks with wooden boats loaded with jerricans. Troops also discovered three 25-litre jerricans filled with 75 litres of crude oil. Meanwhile, in Bayelsa State, troops have continued to deny criminal elements freedom of action.” The General Officer Commanding (GOC), 6 Division, Nigerian Army, Major General Emmanuel Emekah, who commended the troops for their resilience charged them to sustain the tempo in ensuring that economic saboteurs are effectively denied freedom of action in the NDR.

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NNPCL declares N5.4 trn profit for 2024, targets 3m bpd output by 2030

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Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) has announced that it recorded a Profit After Tax of N5.4 trillion from total revenue of N45.1 trillion for the full year ended 2024. This is contained in a statement signed by the company’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Andy Odeh, on Monday. According to the statement, “The results, shared during its earnings call with analysts, underscore a year of strong operational delivery.”  Odeh also said the Company unveiled its strategic roadmap to drive sustained growth and support Nigeria’s energy transition through 2030.

“The plan prioritises increased oil and gas production and outlines a $60 billion investment pipeline across the energy value chain,” NNPC Ltd stated. NNPC Ltd’s results, the statement said, highlight a surge in revenues and profits, signalling improved cost discipline, enhanced asset performance, and growing operational stability. NNPC according to the financials made a revenue of N45.1 trillion representing 88 per cent year-on-year growth. It said that Profit After Tax was N5.4 trillion, 64 per cent year-on-year growth; earnings per share stood at N27.07, 64 per cent year-on-year growth

Bashir Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC said “the earnings highlight the positive momentum of our ongoing transformation and the unwavering commitment of our workforce,” said. “They offer a solid foundation for the ambitious growth ahead, in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s mandate, and reaffirm our commitment to delivering value to Nigerians.”

NNPC Limited, the statement said, is accelerating investments across upstream operations, gas infrastructure, and clean energy to extend growth into the next decade. Key strategic targets include: increasing crude oil production to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027 and 3 million bpd by 2030; growing natural gas production to 10 bcf/d by 2027 and 12 bcf/d by 2030 and completing major gas infrastructure projects such as Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK), Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS) and Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) pipelines to strengthen domestic supply and regional integration and Mobilising $60 billion in investments across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors by 2030.

“Our transformation is anchored on transparency, innovation, and disciplined growth,” Ojulari added. “We are positioning NNPC Limited as a globally competitive energy company capable of delivering sustainable returns while powering the future of Nigeria and Africa.”

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