Oil and Gas
Persistent oil sector slowdown threatens 2025 budget execution—NESG
Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has raised concerns over the persistent underperformance of the oil and gas sector, warning that it poses a significant threat to the effective implementation of the 2025 budget. In its latest publication titled “NESG 2025Q1 GDP Alert,” the private sector-led think tank observed that Nigeria’s crude oil production in the first quarter of 2025 fell well below the government’s budget benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd). This shortfall, the NESG warned, translates directly into lost oil revenues, which are critical to funding key government expenditures outlined in the budget.
“Persistent slowdown in the oil and gas sector poses a threat to the execution of the 2025 budget,” the group noted. In 2025Q1, the average crude oil production is significantly below the budget benchmark of 2.06mbpd, translating to lost oil revenues needed to implement the budget. This suggests the urgent need to resolve challenges facing domestic crude oil production, including ageing infrastructure, oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and kidnapping of expatriate workers,” the report stated. The group commended the improvements in the refining sector’s performance in recent months. “Persistent improvement in the Oil refining sector is remarkable,” NESG noted. It, however, noted that there is a need to revive state-owned refineries to sustain the sector’s growth. “The emergence of Dangote Refinery has been a game-changer for Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, reversing more than half a decade of contraction in the Oil refining sector and slashing import bills on petrol by about 53 percent (year-on-year) in 2025Q1. This suggests the need to support privately owned refineries and incentivise investments into the downstream oil and gas sector,” NESG noted.
The NESG welcomed the improved capturing of informal sector activities following the rebasing. The group stated that efforts need to be geared towards transitioning informal sector players into the formal sector. It said, “An example is the new tax laws, which, when implemented on January 1, 2026, will reduce the value-added tax (VAT) burden for many small and medium-sized enterprises. This could prompt voluntary business registration and reduce the pervasive incidence of business closures nationwide.” The group, however, expressed worries about developments in the agricultural sector, saying it needs urgent support to avert a potential surge in food prices. “The rebasing exercise has significantly increased the share of the Livestock subsector in total Agricultural GDP from 4.8 percent in 2024Q1 (using the old base year) to 16.1 percent in 2024Q1 and 13.4 percent in 2025Q1 (using the new base year), attributed to the improved capture of informal activities. This suggests the need to address incessant communal clashes between the farmers and the herders to enhance crop and livestock production, with downward pressures on food inflation,” NESG noted. The National Bureau of Statistics has said that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at N372.8 trillion in 2024, after the base year for calculating the figure was shifted to 2019.
Oil and Gas
Oil steady after Ukraine strike on Russian oil pipeline does not disrupt supply
Oil prices were steady on Thursday, with the market focused on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil assets, while stalled peace talks tempered expectations of a deal restoring Russian oil flows. Brent crude rose 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $63.02 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 41 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.36. Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region, a Ukrainian military intelligence source said on Wednesday, the fifth attack on the pipeline that sends Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
The pipeline operator and Hungary’s oil and gas company later said supplies were moving through the pipeline as normal. “Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase,” consultancy Kpler said in a research report.
This has pushed Russian refining throughput down to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, a 335,000 bpd year-on-year decline, with gasoline hit hardest and gasoil output also materially weaker,” the report added. The perception that progress on a peace plan for Ukraine was stalling also supported prices, after U.S. President Donald Trump’s representatives emerged from peace talks with the Kremlin with no specific breakthroughs on ending the war.
“War and politics, balanced against comfortable stocks, expected supply surplus, and OPEC’s market-share strategy, keep Brent in the $60–$70 range for now,” said PVM analysts. Previously, expectations of an end to the war had pressured prices lower, as traders anticipated a deal would allow Russian oil back into an already oversupplied global market.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude and fuel inventories rose last week as refining activity picked up, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week ended November 28, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an 821,000-barrel draw.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions to reflect market oversupply and production growth that is expected to outstrip demand.
Oil and Gas
Army destroys seven illegal oil refining sites, arrest 4, recover 109,000 ltrs of stolen products
Soldiers from the 6 Division, Nigerian Army, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, have destroyed seven illegal crude oil refining sites in its sustained efforts in the Niger Delta Region. The soldiers during the operation arrested four suspects and recovered 109,000 liters of stolen petroleum products. Lieutenant Colonel Jonah Danjuma, Acting Deputy Director, 6 Division Army Public Relations, in a statement in Port Harcourt, said success was in a sustained operation against oil theft. Danjuma said: “In the latest operations conducted with other security agencies between 10 and 23 November 2025, several illegal refining sites were taken out, four suspected oil thieves were arrested with over 109,000 litres of stolen products recovered across the NDR. “These include over 88,000 litres of stolen crude oil and 21,355 litres of illegally refined Automotive Gasoline Oil (AGO). The total cost of the products recovered amounted to over One Hundred and Fifty Million Naira only.”
Danjuma disclosed that the operations were conducted in Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Delta State. He said: “Operations conducted in Rivers State around Okolomade in Ahoada West Local Government Area (LGA) led to the deactivation of three illegal refining sites, three big pots, four big receivers and three big coolants, with over 40,000 litres of stolen crude and 20,000 litres of illegally refined AGO recovered. At the fringes of the Imo River, troops discovered three illegal refining sites, eight drum pots, seven drum receivers, one fibre boat and over 14,700 litres of stolen crude around Asa, Obeakpo, Lekuma and Abiama in Oyigbo LGA”.
He said “Relatedly, following credible intelligence, troops stormed a compound at Abuloma in Okrika LGA, where they discovered about 1,050 sacks filled with over 32,000 litres of stolen crude. At Abonnema Creek in Akuku-Toru LGA, troops intercepted a Cotonou boat loaded with 25 sacks filled with over 1,000 litres of illegally refined AGO. Also, in Akwa Ibom State, troops conducted a raid on a suspected storage facility at Ikot Akpan, Ekparakwa along the Abak–Ikot Abasi road in Abak LGA. During the operations, over 520 litres of illegally refined AGO stored in a drum and ten jerricans, as well as several empty jerricans, were recovered.
In Delta State, troops conducted an operation at DAEWOO yard within Ekpan area in Uvwie LGA. On sighting troops, the suspected oil thieves fled into nearby creeks with wooden boats loaded with jerricans. Troops also discovered three 25-litre jerricans filled with 75 litres of crude oil. Meanwhile, in Bayelsa State, troops have continued to deny criminal elements freedom of action.” The General Officer Commanding (GOC), 6 Division, Nigerian Army, Major General Emmanuel Emekah, who commended the troops for their resilience charged them to sustain the tempo in ensuring that economic saboteurs are effectively denied freedom of action in the NDR.
Oil and Gas
NNPCL declares N5.4 trn profit for 2024, targets 3m bpd output by 2030
Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) has announced that it recorded a Profit After Tax of N5.4 trillion from total revenue of N45.1 trillion for the full year ended 2024. This is contained in a statement signed by the company’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Andy Odeh, on Monday. According to the statement, “The results, shared during its earnings call with analysts, underscore a year of strong operational delivery.” Odeh also said the Company unveiled its strategic roadmap to drive sustained growth and support Nigeria’s energy transition through 2030.
“The plan prioritises increased oil and gas production and outlines a $60 billion investment pipeline across the energy value chain,” NNPC Ltd stated. NNPC Ltd’s results, the statement said, highlight a surge in revenues and profits, signalling improved cost discipline, enhanced asset performance, and growing operational stability. NNPC according to the financials made a revenue of N45.1 trillion representing 88 per cent year-on-year growth. It said that Profit After Tax was N5.4 trillion, 64 per cent year-on-year growth; earnings per share stood at N27.07, 64 per cent year-on-year growth
Bashir Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC said “the earnings highlight the positive momentum of our ongoing transformation and the unwavering commitment of our workforce,” said. “They offer a solid foundation for the ambitious growth ahead, in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s mandate, and reaffirm our commitment to delivering value to Nigerians.”
NNPC Limited, the statement said, is accelerating investments across upstream operations, gas infrastructure, and clean energy to extend growth into the next decade. Key strategic targets include: increasing crude oil production to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027 and 3 million bpd by 2030; growing natural gas production to 10 bcf/d by 2027 and 12 bcf/d by 2030 and completing major gas infrastructure projects such as Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK), Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS) and Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) pipelines to strengthen domestic supply and regional integration and Mobilising $60 billion in investments across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors by 2030.
“Our transformation is anchored on transparency, innovation, and disciplined growth,” Ojulari added. “We are positioning NNPC Limited as a globally competitive energy company capable of delivering sustainable returns while powering the future of Nigeria and Africa.”
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