Economy
President Tinubu delivers message of hope, call to action to Nigerians, be a nation of producers, not just consumers
President Bola Tinubu has delivered a message of hope and call to action to Nigerians. The President in his Independence day message said “Therefore, on this 65th Anniversary of Our Independence, my message is hope and a call to action. The federal government will continue to do its part to fix the plumbing in our economy. Now, we must all turn on the taps of productivity, innovation, and enterprise, just like the Ministry of Interior has done with our travel passports, by quickening the processing. In this regard, I urge the sub-national entities to join us in nation-building. Let us be a nation of producers, not just consumers. Let us farm our land and build factories to process our produce. Let us patronise ‘Made-in-Nigeria’ goods. I say Nigeria first. Let us pay our taxes.
He said “In the last two years of our administration, we have achieved 12 remarkable economic milestones as a result of the implementation of our sound fiscal and monetary policies: We have attained a record-breaking increase in non-oil revenue, achieving the 2025 target by August with over N20 trillion. In September 2025 alone, we raised N3.65 trillion, 411% higher than the amount raised in May 2023. We have restored Fiscal Health: Our debt service-to-revenue ratio has been significantly reduced from 97% to below 50%. We have paid down the infamous “Ways and Means” advances that threatened our economic stability and triggered inflation. Following the removal of the corrupt petroleum subsidy, we have freed up trillions of Naira for targeted investment in the real economy and social programmes for the most vulnerable, as well as all tiers of government. We have a stronger foreign Reserve position than three years ago. Our external reserves increased to $42.03 billion this September—the highest since 2019. Our tax-to-GDP ratio has risen to 13.5 per cent from less than 10 per cent. The ratio is expected to increase further when the new tax law takes effect in January. The tax law is not about increasing the burden on existing taxpayers but about expanding the base to build the Nigeria we deserve and providing tax relief to low-income earners.
We are now a Net Exporter: Nigeria has recorded a trade surplus for five consecutive quarters. We are now selling more to the world than we are buying, a fundamental shift that strengthens our currency and creates jobs at home. Nigeria’s trade surplus increased by 44.3% in Q2 2025 to ₦7.46 trillion ($4.74 billion), the largest in about three years. Goods manufactured in Nigeria and exported jumped by 173%. Non-oil exports, as a component of our export trade, now represent 48 per cent, compared to oil exports, which account for 52 per cent. This signals that we are diversifying our economy and foreign exchange sources outside oil and gas.
“Oil production rebounded to 1.68 million barrels per day from barely one million in May 2023. The increase occurred due to improved security, new investments, and better stakeholder management in the Niger Delta. Furthermore, the country has made notable advancements by refining PMS domestically for the first time in four decades. It has also established itself as the continent’s leading exporter of aviation fuel. The Naira has stabilised from the turbulence and volatility witnessed in 2023 and 2024. The gap between the official rate and the unofficial market has reduced substantially, following FX reforms and fresh capital and remittance inflows. The multiple exchange rates, which fostered corruption and arbitrage, are now part of history. Additionally, our currency rate against the dollar is no longer determined by fluctuations in crude oil prices. Under the social investment programme to support poor households and vulnerable Nigerians, N330 billion has been disbursed to eight million households, many of whom have received either one or two out of the three tranches of the N25,000 each. Coal mining recovered dramatically from a 22% decline in Q1 to 57.5% growth in Q2, becoming one of Nigeria’s fastest-growing sectors. The solid mineral sector is now pivotal in our economy, encouraging value-added production of minerals extracted from our soil.
“The administration is expanding transport infrastructure across the country, covering rail, roads, airports, and seaports. Rail and water transport grew by over 40% and 27%, respectively. The 284-kilometre Kano-Kastina-Maradi Standard Gauge rail project and the Kaduna-Kano rail line are nearing completion. Work is progressing well on the legacy Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and Sokoto-Badagry Highway. The Federal Executive Council recently approved $3 billion to complete the Eastern Rail Project. The world is taking notice of our efforts. Sovereign credit rating agencies have upgraded their outlook for Nigeria, recognising our improved economic fundamentals. Our stock market is experiencing an unprecedented boom, rising from an all-share index of 55,000 points in May 2003 to 142,000 points as of September 26, 2025. At its last MPC meeting, the Central Bank slashed interest rates for the first time in five years, expressing confidence in our country’s macroeconomic stability.
On security the President said “We are working diligently to enhance national security, ensuring our economy experiences improved growth and performance. The officers and men of our armed forces and other security agencies are working tirelessly and making significant sacrifices to keep us safe. They are winning the war against terrorism, banditry and other violent crimes. We see their victories in their blood and sweat to stamp out Boko Haram Terror in North-East, IPOB/ESN terror in South East and banditry and kidnapping. We must continue to celebrate their gallantry and salute their courage on behalf of a grateful nation. Peace has returned to hundreds of our liberated communities in North-West and North-East, and thousands of our people have returned safely to their homes. I have a message for our young people. You are the future and the greatest assets of this blessed country. You must continue to dream big, innovate, and conquer more territories in your various fields of science, technology, sports, and the art and creative sector. Our administration, through policies and funding, will continue to give you wings to fly sky-high. We created NELFUND to support students with loans for their educational pursuits. Approximately 510,000 students across 36 states and the FCT have benefited from this initiative, covering 228 higher institutions. As of September 10, the total loan disbursed was N99.5 billion, while the upkeep allowance stood at N44.7 billion. Credicorp, another initiative of our administration, has granted 153,000 Nigerians N30 billion affordable loans for vehicles, solar energy, home upgrades, digital devices, and more. YouthCred, which I promised last June, is a reality, with tens of thousands of NYSC members now active beneficiaries of consumer credit for resettlement. Under our Renewed Hope Agenda, we promised to build a Nigeria where every young person, regardless of background, has an equitable opportunity to access a better future—thus, the Investment in Digital and Creative Enterprises (iDICE) programme. The Bank of Industry is driving the programme, in collaboration with the African Development Bank, the French Development Agency, and the Islamic Development Bank. This initiative is at the cusp of implementation. Over the last two years, we have collaborated with our partners to launch the programme, supporting our young builders and dreamers in the technology and creative sectors.
“Fellow Nigerians, I have always candidly acknowledged that these reforms have come with some temporary pains. The biting effects of inflation and the rising cost of living remain a significant concern to our government. However, the alternative of allowing our country to descend into economic chaos or bankruptcy was not an option. Our macro-economic progress has proven that our sacrifices have not been in vain. Together, we are laying a new foundation cast in concrete, not on quicksand. The accurate measure of our success will not be limited to economic statistics alone, but rather in the food on our families’ tables, the quality of education our children receive, the electricity in our homes, and the security in our communities. Let me assure you of our administration’s determination to ensure that the resources we have saved and the stability we have built are channelled into these critical areas. Today, the governors at the state level, and the local government autonomy are yielding more developments”.
Economy
Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Economy
FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
Economy
CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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