Economy
The U.S. officially lost 701,000 jobs in March, but in reality millions vanished
The U.S. lost 701,000 jobs in March, the government’s official employment scorecard showed, but the real losses were much greater: At least 10 million jobs and counting as the coronavirus bore down on the economy. The reported decline in employment was the biggest in 11 years and one of the largest ever, but it’s going to get dwarfed by the job losses in April. The Labour Department employment summary for last month was gleaned from a survey of business establishments completed in the second week of March, just before the COVID-19 pandemic began to devastate the economy. A separate survey of households gave a more accurate view of what was really going on. Employment measured by the household survey showed a 3 million decline in the number of people who said they were working. And 1.6 million people just dropped out of the labor force.
Even those big declines underestimate the carnage, though.
The number of people nationwide who applied for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks of March alone soared by a record 10 million, according to the more recent data on initial jobless claims. Countless Americans have been laid off or furloughed with businesses shutting down across the country to slow the spread of the virus. Employment had risen for a record 113 straight months until the decline in March and now the U.S. is probably confronting an extended period of job losses. A fuller understanding of how badly the labor market has been damaged won’t be available until the April employment report that comes out about a month from now. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, rose to 4.4% from a 50-year low of 3.5% in February. The huge increase in jobless claims, however, suggests the rate has actually surged to around 10%.
In premarket trades, the U.S. stock market appeared headed for another decline.
The March employment forecasts were widely scattered in light of the sudden and shocking deterioration in the economy in the second part of the month. Estimates ranged from a gain of 100,000 to a loss of 700,000. Job losses were higher at restaurants, hotels and related businesses in leisure and hospitality. Employment shrank by 459,000, though even that astonishingly large decline understates the actual number of layoffs. Employment also fell in construction, manufacturing, education and even health care. Notably, some 17,000 jobs in dental and 12,000 at doctor offices disappeared in March, at least temporarily. Many practices not directly dealing with emergencies or the coronavirus have been ordered closed in most of the states. The government added 17,000 Census workers, partly scaling back the decline in employment.
Hours worked fell 0.2 hours to 34.2 hours, but that’s just the start of it. Many workers are losing hours and wages as Americans stick to their homes out of fear of the virus or under government orders. The amount of money the average worker earns climbed 11 cents to $28.62 an hour last month, raising the increase in pay in the past year to 3.1% from 3%. Yet wage gains are also likely to shrink in the coming months, adding more strain to the economy. Employment gains for February and January were revised down by a combined 59,000, but it’s all water under the bridge now. Hiring is unlikely to resume anytime soon except in a few jobs or industries that are benefiting from changing consumer behaviour or surging demand for food or other household staples.
“Today’s numbers are shockingly bad and an understatement of the damage already done to the US economy,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director at Indeed Hiring Lab. “ If this is an indication of what was happening before the full force of the crisis hit, then it will be hard to come up with the words to describe the numbers in future months.” The U.S. is sliding into recession. Of that there’s no doubt. What’s less clear is how deep the economy sinks and how long the downturn lasts. And the answers won’t be forthcoming for awhile. Next’s month employment report should show job losses concentrated in the industries hurt the most by business closures and changing consumer behavior: Airlines, hotels, restaurants, travel agencies, retailers, theaters and personal-care shops have borne the brunt of the damage.
Indeed, the outlook for April is quite grim. The U.S. is looking at the loss of as many as 20 million jobs, potentially pushing the unemployment rate toward 20%. The last time the country saw unemployment like that was in the 1930s during the Great Depression. Trillions in coronavirus spending could explode deficits to World war 11 levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were set to open lower in Friday trades. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 0.59%.
MarketWatch
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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