Connect with us

Economy

U.S. economy grew a mild 2.1% in 4th quarter, but coronavirus threatens to reduce GDP even further

Published

on

The economy expanded at a 2.1% pace at the end of 2019, but the U.S. might struggle to achieve even that modest rate of growth in the months ahead if a new strain of coronavirus isn’t contained.

The government also pegged gross domestic product at 2.1% in its preliminary estimate last month. GDP is the official scorecard for the economy. The economy had been growing at a similar pace early in 2020, but signs are starting to suggest that the global outbreak of the COVID-19 illness could hurt the U.S. in the late stages of the first quarter. Tourism and travel-related businesses are already feeling the ill effects and tech giants such as Apple  have warned about potentially softer sales and profits. Consumer spending, the main engine of the economy, was revised down a notch to show a so-so 1.7%% pace of growth in the fourth quarter. Outlays had risen 3.2% in the prior quarter. The trade deficit was also sharply lower, giving the biggest boost to GDP. Exports rose a revised 2% instead of 1.4%. The decline in imports was little changed at 8.7%.

As reported last month, soft business spending acted as a ball and chain on the economy in the fourth quarter. Fixed business investment, excluding housing, fell 2.3% compared to an initial 1.5% decline. Companies spent less on equipment, especially in oil and gas extraction. The change in the value of unsold goods was revised up to $13 billion from $6.5 billion, but it was still the weakest in a year and a half. Manufacturers cut back production late in the year amid a drop in demand tied to the U.S.-China trade war and a slowing global economy. Until the outbreak of the COVID-19 illness, investors were hoping that a partial trade truce with China would spur more business investment this year, but the spread of the virus appears to have upset those plans. The rate of inflation in the fourth quarter, meanwhile, was lowered to 1.3% from 1.6%. Inflation has been running low for years and shows little sign of rising.

Most other figures in the report were little changed. The spiraling health and other risks from the coronavirus have created a shadow over what had seemed to be a sunny U.S. economy. So far the harm has been limited, but the viral outbreak could do more damage in the near future and even raise the odds of the first recession in almost 11 years if it’s not contained. “Revisions to the key GDP components were trivial, but in any case these data are now very old news, given the Covid-19 outbreak,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  and S&P 500 sank again in Thursday trades. Stocks have lost about 3,000 points in the past week owing to the rapid spread outside of China of the new strain of coronavirus. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 1.26% as investors sought the perceived safety of government bonds. The yield has fallen to a record low.

Continue Reading

Economy

Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth

Published

on

The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.

The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.

He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.

“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”

Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”

The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.

With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.

Continue Reading

Economy

FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue 

Published

on

Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.

The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.

He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.

Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.

Continue Reading

Economy

CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate

Published

on

The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%. 

The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.

Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.

The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.

Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.

Continue Reading

Trending