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FG incurred N247.44 bn deficit in fourth quarter 2017—CBN

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The fiscal operations of the Federal Government, in the last quarter of 2017 resulted in an estimated deficit of N247.44 billion, compared with the proportionate quarterly budget deficit of N589.19 billion. This fact is contained in the Central Bank of Nigeria fourth quarter economic report for 2017. The report said “provisional Federal Government retained revenue for the fourth quarter of 2017 was estimated at N731.61 billion. This was below the proportionate quarterly budget estimate and the receipts in the preceding quarter by 45.8 per cent and 7.2 per cent, respectively. Of the total revenue, Federation Account accounted for 87.2 per cent, while VAT, Federal Government Independent Revenue and Exchange Gain accounted for 5.0, 4.5 and 3.3 per cent, respectively.

“At N731.61 billion, the estimated FGN retained revenue was lower than the proportionate quarterly budget estimate by 45.8 per cent. The estimated Federal Government expenditure for the fourth quarter of 2017 was N979.05 billion. This was below the proportionate quarterly budget estimate of N1,937.98 billion by 49.5 per cent and the level in the preceding quarter by 30.4 per cent. A breakdown of the total expenditure showed that the recurrent component accounted for 81.7 per cent, while capital and statutory transfers accounted for 9.6 and 8.7 per cent, respectively.

“A further breakdown of the recurrent expenditure showed that the non-debt component accounted for 44.4 per cent, while debt service payments was 55.6 per cent. Total allocation to state governments from the Federation Account, including the 13.0 per cent Derivation Fund and the VAT Pool Account, was N578.05 billion in the review quarter. This was lower than the proportionate quarterly budget estimate by 31.9 per cent. A breakdown showed that the receipts from the Federation Account was N456.39 billion (79.0%), while the share from VAT pool account stood at N121.66 billion (21.0%).

The receipts from both the Federation and VAT Pool Accounts were 27.8 per cent and 43.7 per cent below the respective proportionate budget estimates. Total allocations to local governments from the Federation and VAT Pool Accounts in the fourth quarter of 2017 stood at N344.21 billion. This was below the proportionate quarterly budget estimate by 32.9 per cent. Of the total amount, allocation from the Federation Account was N259.05 billion (75.3%), while the VAT Pool Account stood at N85.16 billion (24.7%).”

The CBN in the report further said “Federally-collected revenue in the fourth quarter of 2017, at N2,040.59 billion, was lower than the proportionate quarterly budget estimate of N2,684.28 billion by 24.0 per cent. It was also below the receipts in the preceding quarter by 11.9 per cent. The decline in federally-collected revenue (gross) relative to the quarterly budget estimate was attributed to the shortfall in receipts from both oil and non-oil revenue during the review quarter. Gross federally – collected revenue fell by 11.9 per cent below the level in the third quarter of 2017.

“Gross oil receipt at N1,226.04 billion or 60.1 per cent of the total revenue, was lower than both the proportionate quarterly budget estimate and the receipts in the preceding quarter by 9.1 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively. The decline in oil revenue relative to the proportionate quarterly budget estimate was attributed to the fall in receipts from crude oil/gas exports. This was due to the drop in crude oil production, arising from leakages and shut-ins/shut-downs.

“At N814.55 billion or 39.9 per cent of the total, non-oil revenue (gross) fell below the proportionate quarterly budget estimate of N1,335.41 billion by 39.0 per cent. It was also below the level in the preceding quarter by 22.1 per cent. The lower non-oil revenue relative to the proportionate quarterly budget estimate was due to the shortfall in most of its components except Customs Special Levies (Federation Account component) during the review period. A net sum of N1,326.16 billion was retained in the Federation account after statutory deductions and transfers.

“Of this amount, the Federal Government received N637.73 billion, State and Local governments received N323.47 billion and N249.38 billion, respectively, while the balance of N115.58 billion was allocated to the 13.0% Derivation Fund for distribution among the oil-producing states. In addition, the Federal, State and Local Governments received N36.50 billion, N121.66 billion and N85.16 billion, respectively, from the VAT Pool Account. The sum of N1,326.16 billion of the gross federally collected revenue was distributed among the three tiers of government and the 13.0% Derivation Fund for oil producing states.

“In addition, the sum of N50.81 billion was distributed as Exchange Gain as follows: Federal Government, N24.24 billion; state governments, N12.98 billion; local governments, N9.48 billion; and 13% Derivation Fund, N4.8 billion. Similarly, the sum of N0.94 billion was drawn-down from the Non-oil Excess Account and distributed as follows: Federal Government, N0.50 billion; state governments, N0.25 billion; and local governments, N0.19 billion. Thus, the total statutory and VAT revenue allocation to the three tiers of government in the fourth quarter of 2017 amounted to N1,621.22 billion, compared with the proportionate quarterly budget estimate of N2,350.72 billion.”

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Economy

Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth

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The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.

The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.

He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.

“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”

Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”

The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.

With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.

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Economy

FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue 

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Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.

The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.

He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.

Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.

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Economy

CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate

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The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%. 

The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.

Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.

The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.

Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.

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