Finance
Six Nigerian Banks face risk of lower profits, dividends payout
Nigerian banks are likely to face lower profitability, tighter capital buffers, and a potential uptick in non-performing loans (NPLs) as the country’s central bank begins a gradual withdrawal of the regulatory forbearance measures introduced at the height of the COVID-19 crisis. In a recent circular the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) ordered all banks benefiting from forbearance on credit exposures or breaches of Single Obligor Limits to suspend dividend payments, defer executive bonuses, and halt new investments in foreign subsidiaries or offshore ventures. The policy shift comes at a time when banks are already absorbing significant credit losses linked to Nigeria’s fragile economic recovery and foreign exchange instability.
According to available data ten banks, which annual reports are filed with the Nigerian Exchange, recorded a cumulative N3.77 trillion in loan impairment charges between 2023 first quarter and same period of 2025. The figure surged from N1.34 trillion in 2023 to N2.13 trillion in 2024, with an additional N297 billion in provisions recorded in the first quarter of 2025 alone. Meanwhile, reports from some banks indicate that they have cleared or are near to clearing their forbearance positions suggesting this circular may have been targeted at banks that have not. Sources within GTCO said that they cleared their regulatory forbearance as of December 2024. The bank’s GMD/CEO also stated this in the bank’s earnings call back in April. Another source in Zenith also said that the balance of their forbearance will be cleared by June 2025. Regulatory forbearance was introduced in March 2020 as part of pandemic-era relief measures that allowed Nigerian banks to restructure loans to struggling sectors such as oil and gas, agriculture, and power, without classifying them as impaired. According to data compiled by Renaissance Capital, the CBN’s forbearance policy kept the sector-wide NPL ratio at a modest 4.3%, below the 5% regulatory threshold, despite severe macroeconomic dislocations.
Estimates by Renaissance Capital show that seven Tier-1 and mid-tier banks Zenith Bank ($910 million), FBN Holdings ($848 million), UBA ($771 million), Access Bank ($535 million), Fidelity ($556 million), FCMB ($332 million), and GTCO ($60 million)—carry a combined $4 billion in restructured or “forborne” loans, primarily concentrated in the oil and gas sector. These loans are largely classified as Stage 2 under IFRS 9, denoting a significant increase in credit risk but not yet non-performing. The Rencap report was published in December based on estimates from the bank’s 2024 half-year results. Rencap will be updating the report soon. But with the worst of the pandemic now behind and Nigeria’s foreign exchange and monetary environment shifting, the central bank is keen to unwind what it sees as prolonged and distortionary relief. The phased withdrawal of forbearance is expected to exert pressure on banks’ capital positions.
According to the report, under a base case scenario where banks are required to take a 10% provision against forbearance loans through equity, capital adequacy ratios (CAR) could decline significantly. Zenith Bank’s CAR would fall by an estimated 128 basis points; FBNH, by 149bps; and Fidelity, by as much as 394bps. While GTCO has already provisioned roughly 80% of its forbearance book and Zenith Bank 20%, others appear less prepared. FBN Holdings’ largest exposure—oil group Aiteo—has reportedly resumed interest payments, suggesting an improvement in cash flow, but uncertainty remains over the repayment of principal. In a worst-case scenario, where loans are reclassified as NPLs and banks are required to provision through their profit and loss accounts, NPL ratios could exceed the CBN’s benchmark. Renaissance Capital projects NPL ratios could rise to 7.2% for FCMB, 7.1% for UBA, 6.7% for Zenith, and 6.2% for FBNH, well above current levels. The estimated declines in capital adequacy ratios (CAR) are Fidelity Bank, down 394 basis points; FCMB: down 198bps; FBNH down 149bps; Zenith Bank: down 128bps
In the worst-case scenario—if banks are forced to reclassify forbearance loans as non-performing, the NPL ratios could rise significantly for FCMB: from 5.4% to 7.2%; UBA: from 6.4% to 7.1%; Zenith: from 4.6% to 6.7%; FBNH: from 4.8% to 6.2%. Only Access and GTCO would remain below the regulatory 5% NPL ceiling based on the report published last December.
Finance
Afreximbank successfully closed its second Samurai Bond transactions, raising JPY 81.8bn or $527m
African Export-Import Bank said it has successfully closed its second Samurai bond transaction, securing a total of JPY 81.8 billion (approx. USD 527 million) through Regular and Retail Samurai Bonds offerings.
The execution surpasses the Bank’s 2024 debut issuance size, attracting orders from more than 100 institutional and retail investors, marking a renewed demonstration of strong Japanese investor confidence in the Bank’s credit and its growing presence in the yen capital markets.
On 18 November, Afreximbank priced a JPY 45.8 billion 3-year tranche in the Regular Samurai market following a comprehensive sequence of investor engagement activities leveraging Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD9), including Non-Deal Roadshows (NDRs) in Tokyo, Kanazawa, Kyoto, Shiga and Osaka, a Global Investor Call, and a two-day soft-sounding process which tested investor appetite across 2.5-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities.
With market expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate increase, investor demand concentrated in shorter tenors, resulting in a focused 3-year tranche during official marketing.
The tranche attracted strong participation from asset managers (22.3%), life insurers (15.3%), regional corporates, and high-net-worth investors (39.7%).
Concurrently, Afreximbank priced its second Retail Samurai bond on 18 November, a JPY 36.0 billion 3-year tranche, more than double the inaugural JPY 14.1 billion Retail Samurai issuance completed in November 2024.
The 2025 Retail Samurai bond also marks the first Retail Samurai bond issued in Japan in 2025.
Following the amendment to Afreximbank’s shelf registration on 7 November 2025, SMBC Nikko conducted an extensive seven-business-day demand survey through its nationwide branch network, followed by a six-business-day bond offering period.
The offering benefited from strong visibility supported by Afreximbank’s investor engagement across the country, including the Bank’s participation at TICAD9, where Afreximbank hosted the Africa Finance Seminar to introduce Multinational Development Bank’s mandate in Africa and its credit profile to key Japanese institutional investors.
MBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as Sole Lead Manager and Bookrunner for both the Regular and Retail Samurai transactions. Chandi Mwenebungu, Afreximbank’s Managing Director, Treasury & Markets and Group Treasurer, commented:
“We are pleased with the successful completion of our second Samurai bond transactions, which marked a significant increase from our inaugural Retail Samurai bond in 2024, and which reflect the growing depth of our relationship with Japanese investors.
The strong demand, both in the Regular and Retail offerings, demonstrates sustained confidence in Afreximbank’s credit and mandate.
We remain committed to deepening our engagement in the Samurai market through regular investor activities and continued collaboration with our Japanese partners.”
Finance
Ecobank unveils SME bazaar: a festive marketplace for local entrepreneurs
Ecobank Nigeria, a member of Africa’s leading pan-African banking group, has announced the launch of the Ecobank SME Bazaar—a two-weekend festive marketplace designed to celebrate local creativity, empower entrepreneurs, and give Lagos residents a premium shopping experience this Detty December. The Bazaar will hold on 29–30 November and 6–7 December at the Ecobank Pan African Centre (EPAC), Ozumba Mbadiwe Road, Victoria Island, Lagos. Speaking ahead of the event, Omoboye Odu, Head of SMEs, Ecobank Nigeria, reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to supporting small and medium-sized businesses, describing them as the heartbeat of Nigeria’s economy. She explained that the Ecobank SME Bazaar was created to enhance visibility for entrepreneurs, expand market access, and support sustainable business growth.
According to her, “This isn’t just a market—it’s a vibrant hub of culture, commerce, and connection. From fresh farm produce to trendy fashion, handcrafted pieces, lifestyle products, and delicious food and drinks, the Ecobank SME Bazaar promises an unforgettable experience for both shoppers and participating SMEs. Whether you’re shopping for festive gifts, hunting for unique finds, or soaking in the Detty December energy, this is the place to be.” Ms. Odu added that participating businesses will enjoy increased brand exposure, deeper customer engagement, and meaningful networking opportunities—making the Bazaar a strong platform for both festive-season sales and long-term business growth. The event is powered by Ecobank in partnership with TKD Farms, Eko Marche, Leyyow, and other SME-focused organisations committed to building sustainable enterprises.
Finance
16 banks have recapitalised before deadline—CBN
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said that16 banks have so far met the new capital requirements for their various licences, some four months before the March 31, 2026 deadline. The apex bank also indicated that 27 other banks have raised capital through various methods in one of the most extensive financial sector reforms since 2004. Addressing journalists at the end of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, CBN Governor Mr Olayemi Cardoso said the banking recapitalisation was going on orderly, consistent with the regulator’s expectations. He said, “We are monitoring developments, and indications show the process is moving in the right direction.” Nigeria has 44 deposit-taking banks, including seven commercial banks with international authorisation, 15 with national authorisation, four with regional authorisation, four non-interest banks, six merchant banks, seven financial holding companies and one representative office.
Cardoso explained that eight commercial banks had met the N500 billion capital requirement as of July 22, 2024, rising to 14 by September of the same year. The number has now increased to 16 as the industry continues to race toward full compliance. He said that the reforms would reinforce the resilience of Nigerian banks both within the country and across the continent. “We are building a financial system that will be fit for purpose for the years ahead. Many Nigerian banks now operate across Africa and have been innovative across different markets. These new buffers will better equip them to manage risks in the multiple jurisdictions where they operate,” Cardoso said. According to him, the reforms would strengthen the financial sector’s capability to support households and businesses. He said, “Ultimately, this benefits Nigerians—our traders, our businesses and our citizens—who operate across those regions. “It should give everyone comfort to know that Nigerian banks with deep local understanding are present to support them. Commercial banks are also creating their own buffers through the ongoing recapitalisation.”
He added that the apex bank considered several factors in determining the new capital thresholds, including prevailing macroeconomic conditions, stress test results and the need for stronger risk buffers. He reassured on the regulator’s commitment to strict oversight as the consolidation progresses. “We will rigorously enforce our ‘fit and proper’ criteria for prospective new shareholders, senior management, and board members of banks, and proactively monitor the integrity of financial statements, adequacy of financial resources, and fair valuation of banks’ post-merger balance sheets,” Cardoso said. He said the CBN remained confident that the banking system would emerge stronger at the conclusion of the recapitalization exercise, with institutions better prepared to support Nigeria’s economic transformation Banks have up till March 31, 2026 to beef up their minimum capital base to the new standard set by the apex bank. Under the new minimum capital base, CBN uses a distinctive definition of the new minimum capital base for each category of banks as the addition of share capital and share premium, as against the previous use of shareholders’ funds.
While most banks have shareholders’ funds in excess of the new minimum capital base, their share premium and share capital significantly fall short of the new minimum definition. The CBN had in March 2024 released its circular on review of minimum capital requirement for commercial, merchant and non-interest banks. The apex bank increased the new minimum capital for commercial banks with international affiliations, otherwise known as mega banks, to N500 billion; commercial banks with national authorisation, N200 billion and commercial banks with regional license, N50 billion. Others included merchant banks, N50 billion; non-interest banks with national license, N20 billion and non-interest banks with regional license will now have N10 billion minimum capital. The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. Under the guidelines for the recapitalisation exercise, banks are expected to subject their new equity funds to capital verification before the clearance of the allotment proposal and release of the funds to the bank for onwards completion of the offer process and addition of the new capital to its capital base. The CBN is the final signatory in a tripartite capital verification committee that included the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC). The committee is saddled with scrutinising new funds being raised by banks under the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise.
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