Oil and Gas
Africa’s $100bn refining opportunity unlocks as new capacity surges toward 2030
Africa is set to add 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of new refining capacity by 2030, marking one of the fastest downstream expansions globally, according to the newly released 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook. This medium-term growth – led by landmark projects in Nigeria, Angola and Uganda – signals a turning point for the continent’s energy sovereignty and investment attractiveness. At the forefront of Africa’s refining expansion is Nigeria’s 650,000-bpd Dangote Refinery, which began operations in 2024 and is already reshaping regional fuel trade dynamics. Further developments include the 200,000-bpd Akwa Ibom Refinery, also in Nigeria, and Angola’s state-driven push to bring online the 200,000-bpd Lobito Refinery and 100,000-bpd Soyo Refinery by 2030.
Uganda’s refining ambitions are taking shape with a 60,000-bpd facility in Hoima, part of the country’s broader Lake Albert basin development plan. Meanwhile, modular refinery projects in Ghana, Guinea-Conakry, the Republic of Congo and additional sites in Nigeria are enabling incremental but scalable capacity builds in markets where infrastructure and financing hurdles persist. In North Africa, Algeria (Hassi Messaoud), Libya (Ubari) and Egypt (Soukhna) are all advancing refinery projects aimed at capturing higher margins, improving domestic supply security and reducing dependency on imports of refined petroleum products.
According to OPEC, Africa will need over $40 billion in refining investments by 2030 to meet its mid-decade objectives. Beyond 2030, the figure climbs steeply – requiring an additional $60+ billion for refinery construction, modernization and secondary processing capacity upgrades. This opens a $100 billion investment window for project developers, institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds and energy-focused private equity. With nearly 86% of global refinery additions through 2050 concentrated in the Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, Africa is increasingly seen as a high-growth frontier.
The 2025 edition of African Energy Week (AEW): Invest in African Energies in Cape Town will provide a platform for governments, operators and financiers to align on next-phase refinery projects, policy incentives and deal pipelines. As host countries seek to reduce costly imports and capture more value from domestic crude, AEW offers an ideal venue for matchmaking capital with opportunity. Additionally, Africa’s rising domestic consumption of crude – forecast to reach 4.5 million bpd by 2050 from just 1.8 million bpd in 2024 – further underlines the case for investing in downstream infrastructure. This consumption shift, in turn, is expected to reduce Africa’s crude exports by over one million bpd by 2050, emphasizing a structural pivot toward internal value chains.
Africa’s medium-term refining expansion reflects both a technical development and strategic inflection point. If the continent seizes this momentum, it can move beyond being a raw crude exporter to becoming a competitive, resilient and integrated energy producer. With $100 billion in refining investment needs projected through 2050 and billions in trade deficits to reverse, the time to bet on the African downstream sector is now.
Oil and Gas
Oil steady after Ukraine strike on Russian oil pipeline does not disrupt supply
Oil prices were steady on Thursday, with the market focused on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil assets, while stalled peace talks tempered expectations of a deal restoring Russian oil flows. Brent crude rose 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $63.02 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 41 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.36. Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region, a Ukrainian military intelligence source said on Wednesday, the fifth attack on the pipeline that sends Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
The pipeline operator and Hungary’s oil and gas company later said supplies were moving through the pipeline as normal. “Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase,” consultancy Kpler said in a research report.
This has pushed Russian refining throughput down to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, a 335,000 bpd year-on-year decline, with gasoline hit hardest and gasoil output also materially weaker,” the report added. The perception that progress on a peace plan for Ukraine was stalling also supported prices, after U.S. President Donald Trump’s representatives emerged from peace talks with the Kremlin with no specific breakthroughs on ending the war.
“War and politics, balanced against comfortable stocks, expected supply surplus, and OPEC’s market-share strategy, keep Brent in the $60–$70 range for now,” said PVM analysts. Previously, expectations of an end to the war had pressured prices lower, as traders anticipated a deal would allow Russian oil back into an already oversupplied global market.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude and fuel inventories rose last week as refining activity picked up, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week ended November 28, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an 821,000-barrel draw.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions to reflect market oversupply and production growth that is expected to outstrip demand.
Oil and Gas
Army destroys seven illegal oil refining sites, arrest 4, recover 109,000 ltrs of stolen products
Soldiers from the 6 Division, Nigerian Army, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, have destroyed seven illegal crude oil refining sites in its sustained efforts in the Niger Delta Region. The soldiers during the operation arrested four suspects and recovered 109,000 liters of stolen petroleum products. Lieutenant Colonel Jonah Danjuma, Acting Deputy Director, 6 Division Army Public Relations, in a statement in Port Harcourt, said success was in a sustained operation against oil theft. Danjuma said: “In the latest operations conducted with other security agencies between 10 and 23 November 2025, several illegal refining sites were taken out, four suspected oil thieves were arrested with over 109,000 litres of stolen products recovered across the NDR. “These include over 88,000 litres of stolen crude oil and 21,355 litres of illegally refined Automotive Gasoline Oil (AGO). The total cost of the products recovered amounted to over One Hundred and Fifty Million Naira only.”
Danjuma disclosed that the operations were conducted in Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Delta State. He said: “Operations conducted in Rivers State around Okolomade in Ahoada West Local Government Area (LGA) led to the deactivation of three illegal refining sites, three big pots, four big receivers and three big coolants, with over 40,000 litres of stolen crude and 20,000 litres of illegally refined AGO recovered. At the fringes of the Imo River, troops discovered three illegal refining sites, eight drum pots, seven drum receivers, one fibre boat and over 14,700 litres of stolen crude around Asa, Obeakpo, Lekuma and Abiama in Oyigbo LGA”.
He said “Relatedly, following credible intelligence, troops stormed a compound at Abuloma in Okrika LGA, where they discovered about 1,050 sacks filled with over 32,000 litres of stolen crude. At Abonnema Creek in Akuku-Toru LGA, troops intercepted a Cotonou boat loaded with 25 sacks filled with over 1,000 litres of illegally refined AGO. Also, in Akwa Ibom State, troops conducted a raid on a suspected storage facility at Ikot Akpan, Ekparakwa along the Abak–Ikot Abasi road in Abak LGA. During the operations, over 520 litres of illegally refined AGO stored in a drum and ten jerricans, as well as several empty jerricans, were recovered.
In Delta State, troops conducted an operation at DAEWOO yard within Ekpan area in Uvwie LGA. On sighting troops, the suspected oil thieves fled into nearby creeks with wooden boats loaded with jerricans. Troops also discovered three 25-litre jerricans filled with 75 litres of crude oil. Meanwhile, in Bayelsa State, troops have continued to deny criminal elements freedom of action.” The General Officer Commanding (GOC), 6 Division, Nigerian Army, Major General Emmanuel Emekah, who commended the troops for their resilience charged them to sustain the tempo in ensuring that economic saboteurs are effectively denied freedom of action in the NDR.
Oil and Gas
NNPCL declares N5.4 trn profit for 2024, targets 3m bpd output by 2030
Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) has announced that it recorded a Profit After Tax of N5.4 trillion from total revenue of N45.1 trillion for the full year ended 2024. This is contained in a statement signed by the company’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Andy Odeh, on Monday. According to the statement, “The results, shared during its earnings call with analysts, underscore a year of strong operational delivery.” Odeh also said the Company unveiled its strategic roadmap to drive sustained growth and support Nigeria’s energy transition through 2030.
“The plan prioritises increased oil and gas production and outlines a $60 billion investment pipeline across the energy value chain,” NNPC Ltd stated. NNPC Ltd’s results, the statement said, highlight a surge in revenues and profits, signalling improved cost discipline, enhanced asset performance, and growing operational stability. NNPC according to the financials made a revenue of N45.1 trillion representing 88 per cent year-on-year growth. It said that Profit After Tax was N5.4 trillion, 64 per cent year-on-year growth; earnings per share stood at N27.07, 64 per cent year-on-year growth
Bashir Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC said “the earnings highlight the positive momentum of our ongoing transformation and the unwavering commitment of our workforce,” said. “They offer a solid foundation for the ambitious growth ahead, in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s mandate, and reaffirm our commitment to delivering value to Nigerians.”
NNPC Limited, the statement said, is accelerating investments across upstream operations, gas infrastructure, and clean energy to extend growth into the next decade. Key strategic targets include: increasing crude oil production to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027 and 3 million bpd by 2030; growing natural gas production to 10 bcf/d by 2027 and 12 bcf/d by 2030 and completing major gas infrastructure projects such as Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK), Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS) and Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) pipelines to strengthen domestic supply and regional integration and Mobilising $60 billion in investments across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors by 2030.
“Our transformation is anchored on transparency, innovation, and disciplined growth,” Ojulari added. “We are positioning NNPC Limited as a globally competitive energy company capable of delivering sustainable returns while powering the future of Nigeria and Africa.”
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