CBN cites insecurity as biggest concern for businesses in Nigeria— report

Nigerian businesses remained optimistic about the economy in April despite rising insecurity, multiple taxes and high borrowing costs, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest Business Expectations Survey.  

The survey showed that the overall confidence index stood at 3.9 points in April 2026, indicating that businesses still maintained a positive outlook on economic conditions, though at a slower pace than in previous months.

Firms were more optimistic about the months ahead, with confidence projections rising to 16.9 points for May, 27 points for the next three months, and 34.6 points for the next six months.  

The report comes ahead of the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for May 19 and 20, where policymakers are expected to deliberate on interest rates amid persistent inflationary pressures and concerns over the cost of credit to businesses and households.

Nigeria’s inflationary environment has continued to weigh on businesses over the past year, despite the apex bank’s aggressive monetary tightening.

Higher electricity tariffs, elevated transport costs following fuel subsidy reforms, exchange rate volatility and rising financing expenses combined to increase operating costs across several sectors.

Against this backdrop, the survey showed that insecurity remained the top operational constraint for businesses, scoring 74.1 points.

High and multiple taxes followed closely at 70.5 points, while high interest rates scored 67.4 points. Businesses also cited high bank charges and intense competition as major challenges affecting operations during the period under review.  

The CBN noted that the business environment remained shaped more by security and cost pressures than by weak consumer demand.

The findings show growing concerns among businesses over attacks on farming communities, supply chain disruptions, rising logistics expenses and the broader impact of insecurity on investment and commercial activities in different parts of the country.

Despite the difficult operating environment, businesses across the major sectors retained a positive outlook on the economy.

The industry sector recorded the strongest confidence level at 8.8 points, while agriculture and services posted 2.7 points and 1.5 points, respectively.  

Among individual sectors, mining and quarrying emerged as the strongest performer, recording a business confidence index of 65.2 points, the highest among all sectors surveyed.

The sector also posted the strongest expansion prospects and the highest capacity utilisation level at 66.2 per cent.  

The strong performance of the mining sector comes as the federal government intensifies efforts to position solid minerals as a major contributor to economic diversification.

Nigeria has, in recent times, stepped up efforts to attract investments into lithium and other critical minerals amid growing global demand for resources linked to electric vehicles and clean energy technologies.

The survey, however, showed a widening gap between expansion plans and employment expectations.
Though firms across sectors anticipated increased business activity in the coming months, the employment outlook remained negative throughout the review periods.

Manufacturing recorded an employment outlook of minus 9.6 points, construction posted minus 13 points, while mining and quarrying recorded minus 15.2 points.  

The figures suggest that while businesses expect economic activity to improve, many firms remain cautious about hiring due to uncertainty about operating costs, financing conditions, and the broader economic outlook.

Regional survey data also revealed differences in business sentiment across the country. Businesses in northern Nigeria expressed stronger optimism about the economy, with the North-East recording the highest confidence levels across all review periods.

By contrast, firms in the South-East and South-South were more cautious, posting negative current-month outlooks of minus 11.9 and minus 10.6, respectively.  

Businesses surveyed also expected the naira to appreciate against the US dollar over the coming months, although respondents said borrowing costs were likely to remain elevated during the same period.  

The survey was conducted between April 6 and April 10 and covered 1,900 businesses across the industry, agriculture and services sectors, with a response rate of 99.4 per cent.

The report, according to the bank, reflects respondents’ views and does not necessarily represent the position of the apex bank.