OPEC estimates 23% global energy demand growth

Global primary energy demand is projected to rise by 23% by 2050 to nearly 383 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), driven largely by population growth, urbanisation and economic expansion in developing economies, according to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2026.

The report projects that rising populations and steady economic growth will remain the main drivers of future energy demand. The world’s population is expected to approach 9.7 billion by mid-century, while the global economy is forecast to more than double in size to $359 trillion on a purchasing power parity basis.

Oil is projected to retain the largest share of the global energy mix through 2050, accounting for just under 30%, while oil and gas combined are expected to represent around 54% of total energy demand.

Global electricity generation is forecast to expand by more than 85%, rising from roughly 32,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025 to 59,500 TWh in 2050. About three-quarters of this increase is expected to come from developing economies, particularly across Asia.

OPEC expects global oil demand to continue growing over the coming decades, reaching 124.1 million bpd by 2050, up nearly 19 million bpd from 2025 levels. Demand is projected to reach 113.3 million bpd by 2030.

Meeting projected oil demand will require cumulative investments of $17.7 trillion between 2026 and 2050, including $14.5 trillion in upstream projects, $1.9 trillion in downstream infrastructure and, $1.3 trillion in midstream assets, OPEC said.

Non-OECD countries will account for virtually all net demand growth, led by India, Other Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.

India is expected to be the single largest contributor to long-term demand growth, adding 8.1 million bpd between 2025 and 2050.

Demand is also projected to rise significantly across Other Asia, the Middle East and Africa, while growth in China is expected to moderate.

Sectorally, road transportation, petrochemicals and aviation are forecast to remain the main drivers of oil consumption growth through 2050.

On the supply side, non-OPEC+ producers are expected to provide roughly half of the increase in global liquids supply through 2030, led by Brazil, Qatar, the US, Argentina and Canada.

However, OPEC said US tight oil production likely peaked in 2025 at just over 9 million bpd, suggesting only modest growth ahead.

As non-OPEC+ supply plateaus during the 2030s, OPEC+ producers are expected to capture a larger share of the market.

The group’s liquids supply is projected to increase from 50.6 million bpd in 2025 to 64.5 million bpd by 2050, raising its market share from 48% to 52%.

Global oil trade is expected to reach around 69 million bpd by 2050, up by 25%. The Middle East is projected to strengthen its position as the world’s largest exporting region, while Asia-Pacific remains the dominant importing market.

OPEC’s alternative scenarios highlight the uncertainty surrounding the long-term outlook.

In a technology-driven scenario characterised by faster adoption of advanced energy technologies and efficiency gains, global oil demand peaks after 2035 and declines to below 107 million bpd by 2050.

By contrast, an equitable growth scenario featuring stronger economic expansion in developing countries lifts oil demand to 131 million bpd by mid-century, nearly 7 million bpd above the reference case.