NGX gained 0.64% to close at 196,242.65 points, suspends trading in shares of Zichis pending outcome of ongoing investigation after 772% price appreciation

The Nigerian equities market opened the week on a positive note, with the NGX All Share Index (ASI) gained 0.64% to close at 196,242.65 points. This brings the year-to-date return to 26.11% from the 25.30% in the previous session. In tandem, the market capitalisation rose by 0.63% to settle at N125.96trn.

The uptick in performance was primarily driven by gains in BUACEMENT (+4.29%), OKOMUOIL (+10.00%), alongside broad-based buying interest across select banking names, such as ZENITHBANK (+2.83%), FIRSTHOLDCO (+3.70%), GTCO (+1.69%), FCMB (+3.78%), UBA (+1.02%), and others. These gains more than offset declines recorded in OANDO (-4.76%), WAPCO (-0.48%), ETI (-1.26%), and DANGSUGAR (-1.04%).

Market activity was mixed, as transaction volume expanded by 45.82%, while traded value declined marginally by 2.19%. JAPAULGOLD (+4.98%) led the volume chart with 473.98mn units exchanged, whereas ARADEL (0.00%) topped the value chart with trades worth N4.14trn.

Market breadth closed negative at 0.91x, indicating that decliners outnumber the advancers. OKOMUOIL (+10.00%) led the thirty-two (32) market gainers, while TIP (-10.00%) led the thirty-five (35) decliners, while the rest of the stocks closed flat.

Nigerian Exchange Limited announced the suspension of trading in the shares of Zichis pending the outcome of an ongoing investigation into the company’s trading activities.

NGX however, closed last week on a positive note, as the All-Share Index (ASI) advanced by 6.95% week-on-week to settle at 194,989.77 points. Strong gains in MTN Nigeria (+10.03% w/w), Dangote Cement (+10.13% w/w), and Seplat Energy (+8.33% w/w) outweighed declines in Transcorp Hotels (-0.63% w/w), Champion Breweries (-5.54% w/w), and Fidelity Bank (-2.39% w/w), lifting overall market performance.

Consequently, year-to-date return strengthened to 25.30% from 17.16% in the prior week, while market capitalisation expanded by N8.14trn week-on-week to N125.16trn. Performance across sectoral indices was broadly positive, reflecting widespread buying interest.

The Industrial Goods Index led the rally with a 10.10% week-on- week gain, buoyed by renewed demand in bellwether cement stocks. This was followed by the Oil and Gas Index (+8.66% w/w), supported by strength in upstream counters, and the NGX Pension Index (+7.16% w/w).

The NGX 30 Index rose by 6.96% w/w, mirroring gains in large-cap names, while the Consumer Goods Index (+6.10% w/w), Banking Index (+5.68% w/w), and NGX Insurance Index (+4.73% w/w) also closed firmly in positive territory, underscoring the market’s broad-based advance.

Looking ahead, market sentiment is expected to remain cautiously optimistic, underpinned by sustained demand for fundamentally strong large- and mid-cap stocks. With most companies having released their FY 2025 earnings, the market’s focus is likely to shift toward dividend declarations and corporate actions, which could continue to drive
selective positioning.

However, given the sharp rally recorded during the week, mild profit-taking may surface in the near term, while broader direction will be influenced by liquidity conditions and macroeconomic developments.

Brent crude prices rose by 5.92% week-on-week, increasing from $67.75/bbl to $71.76/bbl; year-to-date, Brent is up 17.93% with a running average of $66.49/bbl, though still 2.38% below the 2025 average of US$68.02/bbl.

The rally was primarily driven by a geopolitical risk premium linked to heightened tensions between the United States and Iran, which stoked fears of potential supply disruptions through key Middle Eastern transit routes, supported by market tightness, speculative momentum after breaking above the $70 psychological level, and broader volatility.

Bonny Light also strengthened, advancing 3.92% week-on-week to $73.98/bbl (Thursday); its year-to-date average price of US$69.48/bbl remains positive at 16.65%, albeit 1.95% below the 2025 average of US$70.82/bbl.

Looking ahead to next week, oil prices are expected to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, with Brent likely to trade around current levels as markets continue to monitor U.S. -Iran tensions, while any signs of de-escalation or improved supply conditions could trigger consolidation or mild pullbacks.

The Naira appreciated marginally by 0.68% w/w at the NFEM window last week, closing at N1,346.32/$1, compared to N1,355.42/US$1 the previous week. The appreciation was largely supported by sustained foreign portfolio inflows during the period.

The Naira traded stronger midweek, touching a high of N1,338.11/$1, before moderating toward the weekend. Similarly, the parallel market recorded a stronger performance, with the Naira appreciating by 4.48% w/w to close at N1,340.00/US$1, reflecting improved FX supply conditions across segments.

At current levels, the parallel market is trading at a slight premium of 0.47% relative to the official NFEM rate.

Total FX inflows for the week settled at $648.2mn, driven predominantly by foreign participation. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) accounted for the largest share of inflows, contributing $364.8mn (56.3%) of total inflows.

Exporters followed with $168.8mn (26.0%), while non-bank corporates contributed $93.7mn (14.5%).

Individuals accounted for $10.0mn (1.5%), and other sources (including FDIs and other corporates) contributed $10.8mn (1.7%).

Notably, there were no FX inflows from the CBN during the week. On the external front, the CBN’s published gross foreign reserves increased to $48.50bn, representing a 1.16% w/w accretion ($555.38mn) as of February 17, 2026.

The improvement in reserves aligns with the positive net FX flows recorded during the week and continued foreign investor participation.

This week, we expect the Naira to trade within a relatively stable range, supported by sustained portfolio inflows and improved exporter participation.

However, exchange rate movements will likely remain sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment as well as the outcome of the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting this week.

System liquidity moderated over the week, declining from an opening balance of N4.68trn to N2.16trn by Friday, primarily driven by liquidity sterilisation from the N1.15trn NTB issuance by the DMO and the N2.30trn OMO auction by the CBN, which more than offset the N1.86trn credited from OMO maturities.

Despite the liquidity contraction, interbank rates remained broadly stable, with the Open Repo Rate (OPR) closing flat at 22.50%, while the Overnight Rate (OVN) edged marginally lower from 22.78% to 22.71%, reflecting adequate funding conditions within the system.

Primary market activity remained robust, as the Debt Management Office (DMO) offered N1.15trn across the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day tenors, attracting strong investor participation with total subscriptions of N4.28trn, slightly below the N4.59trn recorded at the previous auction.

Total allotments, however, increased significantly to N1.91trn from N952.61bn previously, indicating stronger supply absorption. Demand was heavily concentrated on the 364-day tenor, which garnered N4.07trn in
bids, with N1.71trn allotted at a stop rate of 15.90%, representing a 109bps decline from 16.99% at the prior auction.

Activity at the short end was comparatively moderate, as the 91-day and 182-day bills recorded subscriptions of N112bn and N93.75bn, respectively, with allotments of N105.05bn and N93.41bn clearing at stop rates of 15.80% and 16.65%; the 91-day yield declined by 4bps, while the 182-day rate remained unchanged at 16.65% p.a.

At its OMO auction on Tuesday, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) offered N600.0bn across the 7-day and 105-day maturities, with demand remaining elevated as total subscriptions surged to N2.38trn,
significantly exceeding the offer size.

The CBN ultimately allotted N2.30trn solely on the 105-day tenor, with no allotment on the 7-day bill, translating to a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.03x. The stop rate on the 105-day instrument settled at 19.44%, underscoring persistent investor appetite for attractive short-dated yields despite ongoing liquidity management operations.

In the secondary market, sentiment was bullish as sustained buying interest drove yields lower across instruments. Average T-bill yields declined by 10bps week-on-week to 17.45% p.a., while OMO yields fell more sharply by 65bps to 20.51% p.a.

The FGN bond market also recorded gains, with average yields compressing by 9bps to 16.02% p.a. Similarly, the Eurobond market mirrored the positive tone, as average yields declined by 11bps week-on-week to 6.89% p.a., supported by improved investor sentiment