Economy
Nigerian Stock Market ends week bullish, Naira Stable across Segments
The equities market sustained last week’s bullish run as the All-Share index gained 0.6% w/w to 25,199.84 points, due to buying interest in AIRTELAF, GUARANTY and MTNN. Consequently, investors’ value appreciated ₦82.5bn as market capitalisation rose to ₦13.1tn while YTD return settled at -6.1%. Activity level improved as average volume and value traded advanced 24.5% and 29.0% to 482.4m units and ₦4.5bn respectively. The most traded stocks by volume were GUARANTY (122.0m units), TRANSCORP (113.4m units) and ACCESS (63.7m units) while GUARANTY (₦3.0bn), ZENITH (₦1.1bn) and DANGCEM (₦562.2m) led by value.
Performance across sectors was impressive w/w as 4 of 6 indices under our coverage gained . The Oil & Gas and AFR-ICT indices gained 5.9% and 4.7% respectively, following price accretion in SEPLAT, OANDO, MTNN and AIRTELAF. Similarly, buying interest in CADBURY (+12.9%), NIGERIAN BREWERIES, CORNERSTONE and LASACO buoyed performance in the Consumer Goods and Insurance indices. Conversely, sell pressures in DANGCEM, UNITYBANK and ETI compelled a 2.7% and 3bps loss in the Industrial Goods and Banking indices respectively.
Investor sentiment as measured by market breadth (advance/decline ratio) declined to 0.9x from 2.7x last week as 28 stocks gained against the 30 that declined. CADBURY, NIGERIAN BREWERIES and UNILEVER led the top gainers while CHAMPION, IKEJAHOTEL and NNFM led the decliners. In the coming week, we anticipate a mixed performance as investors take profit while seeking bargain hunting opportunities.
Naira stable across segments of foreign exchange market
Oil demand continues to rebound to pre COVID-19 levels globally. Nevertheless, oil price declined 0.3% w/w to $44.96bbl (8/14/2020). Similarly, on the domestic front, the external reserves declined 0.2% w/w to $35.6bn (8/12/2020) despite no FX sales during the week. In the FX market, the CBN spot rate traded flat all week at ₦381.00/US$1.00 while rate at the parallel market closed flat w/w at ₦475.00.00/$1.00. At the Investors’ & Exporters’ (I&E) Window, the NAFEX rate closed flat at ₦386.00/$1.00. Similarly, activity level in the I&E Window declined this week as total turnover increased 7.5% to US$191.2m from US$177.9m recorded in the previous week.
At the FMDQ Securities Exchange FX Futures Contract Market, the total value of open contracts settled at $12.9bn, up 0.2% ($23.4m) from the prior week. The July 2021 instrument (contract price: ₦418.27) had the most demand with additional subscription of $4.0m putting the total value at $69.0m. Meanwhile the August 2020 instrument (contract price: ₦388.69) saw sell-off worth $30.2m as the total value settled at $1.6bn. In the coming week, we expect the Naira to trade within a similar band across the different FX segments.
Rates Trend Lower in the Secondary Money Market
This week, the OBB and OVN rates opened the week lower at 5.3% and 6.1% respectively from last week’s close of 6.3% and 7.2% even as system liquidity settled at ₦182.1bn. However, both the OBB and OVN rates declined to 4.3% and 5.3% respectively on Wednesday while system liquidity plunged to ₦177.8bn. At the close of the week, the OBB and OVN rates printed at 17.6% and 19.8% respectively with system liquidity settling at c.₦220.7bn.
On Wednesday, the CBN at the primary market auction (PMA) issued 91-day (Offer: ₦19.8bn; Subscription: ₦30.61bn; Sale: ₦19.8bn), 182-day (Offer: ₦10.0bn; Subscription: ₦31.11bn; Sale: ₦10.0bn) and 364-day (Offer: ₦27.0bn; Subscription: ₦56.5bn; Sale: ₦27.0bn) instruments. The bills were issued at marginal rates of 1.20%, 1.39% and 3.19% (vs. 1.20%, 1.50% and 3.40% in the previous week) for the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day tenors respectively. Demand remained strong at the auction as instruments across board were oversubscribed at 1.6x (91-day), 3.1x (182-day) and 2.1x (364-day).
On Thursday, the CBN conducted OMO auction worth ₦50.0bn but issued a total of ₦45.4bn across three tenors. The 103-day (Offer: ₦10.0bn; Subscription: ₦5.6bn; Sale: ₦5.6bn) and 173-day (Offer: ₦10.0bn; Subscription: ₦9.8bn; Sale: ₦9.8bn) bills were undersubscribed at 0.6x and 0.9x with stop rates of 4.92% and 7.74% respectively. On the flip side, demand was strong for the 341-day (Offer: ₦30.0bn; Subscription: ₦79.1n; Sale: ₦30.0bn) instruments with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.6x and a marginal rate of 8.94%. In the secondary treasury bills market, performance was bullish as average yield across benchmark tenors trended lower by 18bps w/w to close at 1.8%. The 180-day note enjoyed the most demand, resulting in average yield decline to 1.2% (vs 2.0% in the previous week). However, the 91 and 364-day bills closed the week flat. In the coming week, we expect high liquidity from maturing OMO bills and T-bills to drive rates lower in the secondary market.
Bonds Market: The Bears Maintain Grip on the Domestic Market
Performance in the secondary market turned bearish yet again this week as average yield rose 8bps w/w to 7.7%. Although the market gained on 4 of 5 trading days, a 28bps rise in yields on Tuesday outstrip the gains recorded on the other days. Across tenors, the short-term bonds recorded the most sell-offs with yields rising 121bps w/w. The mid-term instruments also recorded a 2bps rise in yields while yields declined 77bps at the long end. Across the SSA Eurobond instruments under our coverage, performance was bullish as all instruments gained w/w and average yield declined 26bps to 8.2%. The SENEGAL 2021 and GHANA 2029 instruments enjoyed the highest demand, with the yields declining 55bps and 50bps w/w respectively. Similarly, the NIGERIA 2030 and 2027 instruments recorded gains as yields fell 48bps and 46bps respectively.
For the African Corporate Eurobonds that we track, performance was mixed although positively skewed as average yield declined 13bps w/w to 4.9%. SIBANYE GOLD 2023 instruments led the pack with the yield declining 2.6ppts w/w. ECOBANK 2024 also recorded gains and the yield declined 91bps w/w. Conversely, ESKOM HOLDINGS 2021 recorded the highest sell-offs with the yield rising 1.9ppts w/w. In the domestic market, we expect a sustained bearish performance as investors position for the auction in the coming week. We expect the bullish run in the Eurobonds market to persist due to sustained demand.
Economy
Nigeria champions African-Arab trade to boost agribusiness, industrial growth
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Economy
FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, projects N34.33trn revenue
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
Economy
CBN hikes interest on treasury Bills above inflation rate
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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