Nigeria’s headline inflation drops to 15.39% in August

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased marginally to 15.39% in August 2026 from 15.43% in July, extending the country’s disinflation trend for a third consecutive month.

The latest figure, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), represents a 0.04 percentage-point decline from July and a much sharper 7.75 percentage-point drop from 23.14% recorded in August 2025.

The moderation was driven by slower monthly price increases, particularly in food and core inflation, although rural inflation accelerated during the month.

The NBS noted that on a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed to 0.71% in August from 1.57% in July, indicating that the pace at which consumer prices increased was significantly lower during the month.

The average inflation rate for the 12 months ending August 2026 stood at 16.30%, down from 28.32% a year earlier.

Urban inflation eased to 15.88% year-on-year, while its month-on-month rate fell sharply to 0.28% from 1.90% in July.

The 12-month average stood at 16.28%, compared with 29.73% in August 2025.

Rural inflation stood at 14.23% year-on-year. However, its monthly rate rose to 1.79% from 0.78% in July, pointing to renewed short-term price pressure in rural areas. Food inflation declined to 19.57% year-on-year in August from 25.30% a year earlier.

More significantly, the monthly food inflation rate dropped to 1.02% from 5.56% in July, a 4.55 percentage-point reduction.

The NBS attributed the moderation largely to changes in the prices of commodities including palm oil, carrots, pepper, onions, cassava flour, beef, yam flour, water yam, melon, fresh ginger, fresh fish, Irish potatoes, wheat grain, frozen chicken and turkey.

The slower food-price growth is significant because food remains one of the biggest drivers of household inflation and has a direct impact on consumers’ purchasing power.

Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy prices, fell to 13.29% year-on-year in August from 22.93% in August 2025.

On a monthly basis, core inflation turned negative at -0.06%, compared with 0.15% in July. The 12-month average core inflation rate was 17.30%, down from 26.15% a year earlier.

The moderation came despite expectations among some analysts that inflation could accelerate in August. Ahead of the release, analysts had projected headline inflation within a range of 15.3% to 15.94%.

Dr Ayodeji Ebo, Chief Executive Officer of MDU Capital Limited, had forecast inflation at around 15.6% year-on-year, slightly above July’s 15.43%.

Damilare Asimiyu, Head of Research at FSDH Group, had projected a sharper increase to 15.94%, citing base effects. However, he expected monthly inflation to slow, suggesting that the underlying pace of price increases could moderate.

The August figures reinforce the recent downward trend in inflation, with headline, food and core measures all showing significant moderation in their year-on-year rates.

Despite the continued decline in the headline rate, the inflation environment remains challenging for households, particularly those with limited or unstable incomes.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest Inflation Expectations Survey showed that 71% of respondents earning between N150,001 and N250,000 perceived inflation as high in July, compared with 55.6% among those earning N350,001 to N450,000.

The pressure is compounded by weak household earnings. The PiggyVest Savings Report 2025 found that about three in 10 Nigerians earned below N100,000 monthly, while 28% reported having no income.