Nigeria’s economic growth inched up marginally in fourth quarter of 2025

Nigeria’s economic growth picked up slightly in the fourth quarter of last year, reaching 4.07% year-on-year, following an improvement in both oil and non-oil sectors, data showed on Friday.

The growth rate was faster than the third quarter’s 3.98% reading but short of ambitious targets set by President Bola Tinubu for Africa’s most populous nation.

The National Bureau of Statistics said the oil sector grew 6.79% year on year and the non-oil part of the economy expanded 3.99%.

Since taking office in 2023, Tinubu has scrapped costly fuel and power subsidies, devalued the naira currency and overhauled the tax system to try to strengthen public finances and boost growth.

He has urged Nigerians to back the measures, which have exacerbated economic hardship for many, calling them a “once-in-a-generation” reset.

Nigeria’s average daily oil production stood at 1.58 million barrels per day in the final three months of 2025.

That was lower than the third quarter’s output of 1.64 million bpd but higher than the 1.54 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2024. Industry grew by 3.88% in Q4’25, up from 3.77% in Q3’25.
Agriculture expanded by 4.00% in Q4’25, from 3.97% in Q3’25. The service sector grew flat at 4.15% in both Q4’25 and Q3’25.

Real GDP growth recorded in the Real Estate Services for the fourth quarter of 2025 stood at 3.43%, lower than the growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024 by 1.85% points, and lower by 0.06% points relative to Q3 2025. GDP –

The real growth rate of the construction sector in the fourth quarter of 2025 was recorded at 5.08% (year-on-year), lower by 1.43% points from the rate recorded in the previous year.

In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 97.13% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025, lower than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024, which was 97.20%, and higher than the third quarter of 2025, recorded as 96.56%.

The real growth of the oil sector was 6.79 (year-on-year) in Q4 2025, indicating an increase of 4.71% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024 (2.08%).

The total value of capital importation into Nigeria in the first quarter of 2022 stood at $1,573.14 million from $2,187.63 million in the preceding quarter showing a decrease of 28.09%. When compared to the corresponding quarter of 2021, capital importation decreased by 17.46% from US$1,905.89 million.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.07% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025. Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at 3.36% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Agriculture contributed 25.67% to nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.13% (year-on-year), lower than the same quarter of 2024 and lower than the preceding quarter by 0.15% points and 0.13% points, respectively.

Real GDP growth recorded in the Real Estate Services for the fourth quarter of 2025 stood at 3.43%, lower than the growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024 by 1.85% points, and lower by 0.06% points relative to Q3 2025.