Economy
FDI flows to developing economies drop to lowest level since 2005—WBG
Flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) into developing economies—a key propellant of economic growth and higher living standards—have dwindled to the lowest level since 2005 amid rising trade and investment barriers, new research from the World Bank shows. These barriers pose a significant threat to global efforts to mobilize financing for development. In 2023, the latest year for which data are available, developing economies received just $435 billion in FDI—the lowest level since 2005. That coincides with a global trend in which FDI flows into advanced economies have also slowed to a trickle: high-income economies received just $336 billion in 2023, the lowest level since 1996. As a share of their GDP, FDI inflows to developing economies in 2023 were just 2.3 percent, about half the number during the peak year of 2008. “What we’re seeing is a result of public policy,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President. “It’s not a coincidence that FDI is plumbing new lows at the same time that public debt is reaching record highs. Private investment will now have to power economic growth, and FDI happens to be one of the most productive forms of private investment. Yet, in recent years governments have been busy erecting barriers to investment and trade when they should be deliberately taking them down. They will have to ditch that bad habit.”
From June 30 to July 3, representatives of governments, international institutions, civil society organizations, and the private sector are scheduled to meet in Seville, Spain, to discuss how to mobilize the financing that will be needed to achieve key global and national development goals. The new analysis from the World Bank highlights the policies that will be needed to achieve those goals at a time when economic growth has slowed to a crawl, public debt has surged to record highs, and foreign-aid budgets have shrunk. Easing investment restrictions will be a key first step: so far in 2025, half of all FDI-related measures announced by governments in developing economies have been restrictive measures—the highest share since 2010. With the global community gearing up for the Conference on Financing for Development, the sharp drop in FDI to developing economies should sound alarm bells,” said M. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “Reversing this slowdown is not just an economic imperative—it’s essential for job creation, sustained growth, and achieving broader development goals. It will require bold domestic reforms to improve the business climate and decisive global cooperation to revive cross-border investment.”
Investment treaties tend to boost FDI flows between signatory states by more than 40%, the analysis finds. Between 2010 and 2024, just 380 new investment treaties came into force, barely a third of the 1990s number. Similarly, the report finds that countries that are more open to trade tend to receive more FDI—an extra 0.6% in FDI for each percentage-point increase in the trade-to-GDP ratio. However, the number of new trade agreements signed over the past decade dropped in half—from an average of 11 per year in the 2010s to just six in the 2020s. In 2023, FDI accounted for roughly half of the external financing flows received by developing economies. Under the right conditions, it is a strong spur to economic growth: analysis of data from 74 developing economies between 1995 and 2019 suggests that a 10% increase in FDI inflows generates a 0.3% increase in real GDP after three years. The impact is nearly three times larger—up to 0.8%—in countries with stronger institutions, better human capital, greater openness to trade, and lower informality.
By the same token, the effect of FDI increases is much smaller in countries that lack such features.
FDI tends to be concentrated in the largest economies. Between 2012 and 2023, about two-thirds of FDI flows to developing economies went to just 10 countries, with China receiving nearly a third of the total and Brazil and India receiving roughly 10% and 6% respectively. The 26 poorest countries received barely 2% of the total. Advanced economies, moreover, accounted for nearly 90% of the total FDI in developing economies over the past decade. About half of that came from just two sources: the European Union and the United States. The report identifies three policy priorities for developing economies. First, redouble efforts to attract FDI. Easing FDI restrictions that have accumulated over the last decade would be a good start. So would speeding up improvements in the investment climate, which have stalled in many countries over the past decade. Strong macroeconomic outcomes—healthy growth and rising labor productivity—also help accelerate FDI flows, the analysis shows. An increase of 1% in a country’s labor productivity, for example, is associated with an increase of 0.7% in FDI inflows. Second, amplify the economic benefits of FDI. Promoting trade integration, improving the quality of institutions, fostering human capital development, and encouraging more people to participate in the formal economy increase the benefits of FDI. Governments can also amplify the benefits by channeling FDI to sectors where the impact is greatest. FDI can also help increase job opportunities for women: the domestic affiliates of multinational enterprises, for example, tend to have a higher share of female employees than domestic firms.
Third, advance global cooperation. All countries should work together to accelerate policy initiatives that can help direct FDI flows to developing economies with the largest investment gaps. Especially in a time of high geopolitical tensions, the World Bank and other international institutions have a crucial role to play in supporting a rules-based order. Technical and financial assistance to support structural reform efforts in developing countries—especially low-income countries—are critical for facilitating FDI inflows. The World Bank Group, the world’s largest development bank, is playing a key role in mobilizing private capital—by creating instruments that lower financial risks for investors, by helping to improve market conditions in developing economies, and by scaling up its engagement with the private sector.
The Arab Africa Trade Bridges (AATB) Program and the Federal Republic of Nigeria formalized a partnership with the signing of the AATB Membership Agreement, officially welcoming Nigeria as the Program’s newest member country. The signing ceremony took place in Abuja on the sidelines of the 5th AATB Board of Governors Meeting, hosted by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The Membership Agreement was signed by Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, the CEO of the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) and AATB Program Secretary General, and H.E. Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Agreement will provide a strategic and operational framework to support Nigeria’s efforts in trade competitiveness, promote export diversification, strengthen priority value chains, and advance capacity-building efforts in line with national development priorities. Areas of collaboration will include trade promotion, agribusiness modernization, SME development, businessmen missions, trade facilitation, logistics efficiency, and digital trade readiness.
The Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, called for deeper trade collaboration between African and Arab nations, stressing the importance of value-added Agribusiness and industrial partnerships for regional growth. Speaking in Abuja at the Agribusiness Matchmaking Forum ahead of the AATB Board of Governors Meeting, the Minister said the shifting global economy makes it essential for African and Arab nations to rely more on regional cooperation, investment and shared markets.
He highlighted projections showing Arab-Africa trade could grow by more than US$37 billion in the next three years and urged partners to prioritize value addition rather than raw commodity exports. He noted that Nigeria’s growing industrial base and upcoming National Single Window reforms will support efficiency, investment and private-sector expansion.
“This is a moment to turn opportunity into action”, he said. “By working together, we can build stronger value chains, create jobs and support prosperity across our regions”, Edun emphasized. “As African and Arab nations embark on this journey of deeper trade collaboration, the potential for growth and development is vast. With a shared vision and commitment to value-added partnerships, we can unlock new opportunities, drive economic growth, and create a brighter future for our people.”
Speaking during the event, Eng. Adeeb Y. Al Aama, Chief Executive Officer of ITFC and Secretary General of the AATB Program, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Nigeria to be part of the AATB Program. Nigeria stands as one of Africa’s most dynamic and resilient economies in Africa, with a rapidly expanding private sector and strong potential across agribusiness, energy, manufacturing, and digital industries. Through this Membership Agreement, we look forward to collaborating closely with Nigerian institutions to strengthen value chains, expand regional market access, enhance trade finance and investment opportunities, and support the country’s development priorities.”
The signing of this Agreement underscores AATB’s continued engagement with African countries and its evolving portfolio of programs supporting trade and investment. In recent years, AATB has worked on initiatives across agribusiness, textiles, logistics, digital trade, export readiness under the AfCFTA framework, and other regional initiatives such as the Common African Agro-Parks (CAAPs) Programme.
With Nigeria’s accession, the AATB Program extends it’s presence in the region and adds a key partner working toward advancing trade-led development and fostering inclusive economic growth.
Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), a key fiscal document that outlines Nigeria’s revenue expectations, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years. The approval followed Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu at the State House, Abuja. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu made this known after the meeting.
The Minister said the Federal Government is projecting a total revenue inflow of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises. Bagudu said that the projected revenue is N6.55 trillion lower than earlier estimates, adding that federal allocations are expected to drop by about N9.4 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget.
He said that statutory transfers are expected to amount to about N3 trillion within the same fiscal year. On macroeconomic assumptions, FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, although a more conservative 1.8 mbpd will be used for budgeting purposes. An oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar were also approved.
Bagudu said the exchange rate assumption reflects projections tied to economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections. He said the exchange rate assumption took into account the fiscal outlook ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The minister said that all the parameters were based on macroeconomic analysis by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies. Bagudu said FEC also reviewed comments from cabinet members before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets expenditure limits. Earlier, the Senate approved the external borrowing plan of $21.5 billion presented by President Tinubu for consideration The loans, according to the Senate, were part of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2025 budget.
The spot rate on Nigerian Treasury bills has been increased by 146 basis points by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) following tight subscription levels at the main auction on Wednesday. The spot rate on Treasury bills with one-year maturity has now surpassed Nigeria’s 16.05% inflation by 145 basis points following a recent decision to keep the policy rate at 27%.
The Apex Bank came to the primary market with N700 billion Treasury bills offer size across standard tenors, including 91-day, 182-day and 364 day maturities. Details from the auction results showed that demand settled slightly above the total offers as investors began to seek higher returns on naira assets despite disinflation.
Total subscription came in at about N775 billion versus N700 billion offers floated at the main auction. The results showed rising appetite for duration as investors parked about 90% of their bids on Nigerian Treasury bills with 364 days maturity. The CBN opened N100 billion worth of 91 days bills for subscription, but the offer received underwhelming bids totalling N44.17 billion.
The CBN allotted N42.80 billion for the short-term instrument at the spot rate of 15.30%, the same as the previous auction. Total demand for 182 days Nigerian Treasury bills settled at N33.38 billion as against N150 billion that the authority pushed out for subscription. The CBN raised N30.36 billion from 182 days bills allotted to investors at the spot rate of 15.50%, the same as the previous auction.
Investors staked N697.29 billion on N450 billion in 364-day Treasury bills that was offered for subscription. The CBN raised N636.46 billion from the longest tenor at the spot rate of 17.50%, up from 16.04% at the previous auction.
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