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Brent crude oil could hit $110-$120 as Iranian parliament approves closure of Hormuz strait

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Following a US-led airstrike targeted at Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran’s parliament approved the closure of the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil shipments.  The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, handling around 20% of the world’s oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. The waterway is crucial for the export of oil from major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran. This decision, if effected, could push global oil prices up from below $80 to $150 per barrel. But Goldman Sachs analysts have forecast Brent crude oil prices could hit $110 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, while HSBC analysts see prices topping above $80. Prices for Brent could average around $95 in the fourth quarter of 2025, Goldman Sachs said in a note dated June 22.
Their assumptions included oil flows through the critical waterway halving for a month and remaining down by 10% for the following 11 months. Oil prices on Monday jumped to their highest since January after Washington joined Israel over the weekend in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. Prediction markets, despite limited liquidity, reflect a 52% probability of Iran closing the strait this year, Goldman said, citing data from Polymarket. About a fifth of the world’s oil consumption passes through it. “While the events in the Middle East remain fluid, we think that the economic incentives, including for the U.S. and China, to try to prevent a sustained and very large disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be strong,” Goldman Sachs said. HSBC in a note on Monday said that oil prices are set to rise on the higher probability of a closure, or other Iranian retaliatory actions following U.S. military strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites. If there is no disruption, prices should trend down by the fourth quarter as OPEC+ adds supply and demand drops, HSBC analysts wrote.
They forecast Brent at $67 in second and third quarter and at $65 from fourth quarter onwards, but sees upside risks.
Meanwhile crude oil prices fell 1% on Monday after touching a five-month high as markets tried to gauge the impact on transit of oil and gas via the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. airstrikes against Iran at the weekend. Brent crude futures were down 70 cents, or 0.9%, at $76.31 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 76 cents, or 1%, to $73.09. Earlier in the session, Brent and WTI touched five-month highs of $81.40 and $78.40 respectively, before seesawing between positive and negative territory throughout the European trading session. U.S. President Donald Trump said he had “obliterated” Iran’s main nuclear sites in strike over the weekend , joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Israel carried out fresh strikes against Iran on Monday including on capital Tehran and the Iranian nuclear facility at Fordow, which was also a target of the U.S. attack. At least two supertankers made U-turns near the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. military strikes on Iran, ship tracking data shows, as more than a week of violence in the region prompted vessels to speed, pause, or alter their journeys.
About a fifth of global oil supply flows through the strait. However, the risk of a complete shutdown is low, analysts have said. “A full blockade would hurt Iran as well, given its dependency on crude exports to Asia – but asymmetric attacks on ships or terminals remain a very real possibility,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index. “There’s been no disruption to supply — yet. But the market knows all too well how quickly that could change,” Razaqzada said.
Iran, which is OPEC’s third-largest crude producer, said on Monday that the U.S. attack on its nuclear sites expanded the range of legitimate targets for its armed forces and called Trump a “gambler” for joining Israel’s military campaign against the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, Trump expressed a desire to see oil prices kept down amid fears that ongoing fighting in the Middle East could cause them to spike. On his Truth Social platform, he addressed the U.S. Department of Energy, encouraging “drill, baby, drill” and saying, “I mean now.”

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Oil steady after Ukraine strike on Russian oil pipeline does not disrupt supply

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Oil prices were steady on Thursday, with the market focused on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil assets, while stalled peace talks tempered expectations of a deal restoring Russian oil flows. Brent crude rose 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $63.02 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 41 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.36. Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region, a Ukrainian military intelligence source said on Wednesday, the fifth attack on the pipeline that sends Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.

The pipeline operator and Hungary’s oil and gas company later said supplies were moving through the pipeline as normal. “Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase,” consultancy Kpler said in a research report.

This has pushed Russian refining throughput down to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, a 335,000 bpd year-on-year decline, with gasoline hit hardest and gasoil output also materially weaker,” the report added. The perception that progress on a peace plan for Ukraine was stalling also supported prices, after U.S. President Donald Trump’s representatives emerged from peace talks with the Kremlin with no specific breakthroughs on ending the war.

“War and politics, balanced against comfortable stocks, expected supply surplus, and OPEC’s market-share strategy, keep Brent in the $60–$70 range for now,” said PVM analysts. Previously, expectations of an end to the war had pressured prices lower, as traders anticipated a deal would allow Russian oil back into an already oversupplied global market.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude and fuel inventories rose last week as refining activity picked up, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week ended November 28, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an 821,000-barrel draw.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions to reflect market oversupply and production growth that is expected to outstrip demand.

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Army destroys seven illegal oil refining sites, arrest 4, recover 109,000 ltrs of stolen products 

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Soldiers from the 6 Division, Nigerian Army, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, have destroyed seven illegal crude oil refining sites in its sustained efforts in the Niger Delta Region. The soldiers during the operation arrested four suspects and recovered 109,000 liters of stolen petroleum products. Lieutenant Colonel Jonah Danjuma, Acting Deputy Director, 6 Division Army Public Relations, in a statement in Port Harcourt, said success was in a sustained operation against oil theft. Danjuma said: “In the latest operations conducted with other security agencies between 10 and 23 November 2025, several illegal refining sites were taken out, four suspected oil thieves were arrested with over 109,000 litres of stolen products recovered across the NDR. “These include over 88,000 litres of stolen crude oil and 21,355 litres of illegally refined Automotive Gasoline Oil (AGO). The total cost of the products recovered amounted to over One Hundred and Fifty Million Naira only.”

Danjuma disclosed that the operations were conducted in Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Delta State. He said: “Operations conducted in Rivers State around Okolomade in Ahoada West Local Government Area (LGA) led to the deactivation of three illegal refining sites, three big pots, four big receivers and three big coolants, with over 40,000 litres of stolen crude and 20,000 litres of illegally refined AGO recovered. At the fringes of the Imo River, troops discovered three illegal refining sites, eight drum pots, seven drum receivers, one fibre boat and over 14,700 litres of stolen crude around Asa, Obeakpo, Lekuma and Abiama in Oyigbo LGA”.

He said “Relatedly, following credible intelligence, troops stormed a compound at Abuloma in Okrika LGA, where they discovered about 1,050 sacks filled with over 32,000 litres of stolen crude. At Abonnema Creek in Akuku-Toru LGA, troops intercepted a Cotonou boat loaded with 25 sacks filled with over 1,000 litres of illegally refined AGO. Also, in Akwa Ibom State, troops conducted a raid on a suspected storage facility at Ikot Akpan, Ekparakwa along the Abak–Ikot Abasi road in Abak LGA. During the operations, over 520 litres of illegally refined AGO stored in a drum and ten jerricans, as well as several empty jerricans, were recovered.

In Delta State, troops conducted an operation at DAEWOO yard within Ekpan area in Uvwie LGA. On sighting troops, the suspected oil thieves fled into nearby creeks with wooden boats loaded with jerricans. Troops also discovered three 25-litre jerricans filled with 75 litres of crude oil. Meanwhile, in Bayelsa State, troops have continued to deny criminal elements freedom of action.” The General Officer Commanding (GOC), 6 Division, Nigerian Army, Major General Emmanuel Emekah, who commended the troops for their resilience charged them to sustain the tempo in ensuring that economic saboteurs are effectively denied freedom of action in the NDR.

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NNPCL declares N5.4 trn profit for 2024, targets 3m bpd output by 2030

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Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) has announced that it recorded a Profit After Tax of N5.4 trillion from total revenue of N45.1 trillion for the full year ended 2024. This is contained in a statement signed by the company’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Andy Odeh, on Monday. According to the statement, “The results, shared during its earnings call with analysts, underscore a year of strong operational delivery.”  Odeh also said the Company unveiled its strategic roadmap to drive sustained growth and support Nigeria’s energy transition through 2030.

“The plan prioritises increased oil and gas production and outlines a $60 billion investment pipeline across the energy value chain,” NNPC Ltd stated. NNPC Ltd’s results, the statement said, highlight a surge in revenues and profits, signalling improved cost discipline, enhanced asset performance, and growing operational stability. NNPC according to the financials made a revenue of N45.1 trillion representing 88 per cent year-on-year growth. It said that Profit After Tax was N5.4 trillion, 64 per cent year-on-year growth; earnings per share stood at N27.07, 64 per cent year-on-year growth

Bashir Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC said “the earnings highlight the positive momentum of our ongoing transformation and the unwavering commitment of our workforce,” said. “They offer a solid foundation for the ambitious growth ahead, in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s mandate, and reaffirm our commitment to delivering value to Nigerians.”

NNPC Limited, the statement said, is accelerating investments across upstream operations, gas infrastructure, and clean energy to extend growth into the next decade. Key strategic targets include: increasing crude oil production to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027 and 3 million bpd by 2030; growing natural gas production to 10 bcf/d by 2027 and 12 bcf/d by 2030 and completing major gas infrastructure projects such as Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK), Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS) and Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) pipelines to strengthen domestic supply and regional integration and Mobilising $60 billion in investments across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors by 2030.

“Our transformation is anchored on transparency, innovation, and disciplined growth,” Ojulari added. “We are positioning NNPC Limited as a globally competitive energy company capable of delivering sustainable returns while powering the future of Nigeria and Africa.”

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