Equities ‌‌‍‌‌‍‌‍ ‌‌‌ market gains N5.37trn in September, recovers August loss

Nigerian equities market rebounded strongly in September, gaining N5.365 trillion in market capitalisation, following a N587 billion loss recorded in August.

The recovery was driven by improved macroeconomic conditions, Nigeria’s reclassification to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market status and renewed investor confidence.

Market capitalisation grew by 3.40 per cent, rising from N157.739 trillion at the start of September to N163.104 trillion at month-end. Similarly, the All-Share Index (ASI) appreciated from 244,199.39 points to 251,211.67 points, gaining 7,012.28 points or 2.87 per cent.

The market recorded gains in 16 of the 22 trading sessions during the month, while six sessions closed lower. Trading activity was mixed in September, with the volume of shares traded declining by 33.24 per cent, while the value of transactions rose by 43.01 per cent.

A total of 17.936 billion shares, worth N907.841 billion, were traded in 1,117,428 transactions during the month. In contrast, 26.867 billion shares worth N634.801 billion were traded in 899,053 deals in August.  The September performance marked a recovery from the market’s August decline, when profit-taking and repositioning by investors had weighed on trading sentiment.

Among the gainers during the month were Seplat Energy, which rose from N12,320.60 to N16,000; First HoldCo, from N145 to N159.90; and Zenith Bank, from N127.40 to N134.

Nestlé Nigeria rose from N2,830 to N2,900, while Wema Bank increased from N29 to N31.50. AIICO Insurance gained from N3.76 to N3.80, while Consolidated Hallmark Holdings rose from N6.01 to N7.12. Cornerstone Insurance appreciated from N5.25 to N5.60, while Coronation Insurance increased from N2.19 to N2.36.

Aradel Holdings appreciated from N1,415 to N1,530, while MTN Nigeria rose from N807 to N837.Ikeja Hotel gained from N42.55 to N44.50, while Zichis Agro-Allied Industries increased from N14.55 to N19.90.

Dangote Cement appreciated from N1,034 to N1,066.70, while HBM Holdings rose from N335 to N355.

On the other hand, United Bank for Africa (UBA) declined from N47.35 to N45.45, while Access Holdings fell from N32.10 to N30.40. International Breweries declined from N9.80 to N9.55, Cadbury Nigeria from N64.90 to N59.50, Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) from N133 to N132, and Sterling Financial Holdings from N7.85 to N7.70.

Meanwhile, the share prices of Skyway Aviation Handling Company, Conoil, Airtel Africa, Unity Bank and Guinness Nigeria remained unchanged at N171.20, N210, N6,300, N1.51 and N384.80, respectively.

Commenting on the performance, Mr David Adonri, Vice President of Highcap Securities Ltd., attributed the September rally to improved macroeconomic conditions, foreign exchange stability and renewed investor confidence.

Adonri said the market had recovered from the decline in August, when many investors, particularly retail investors, exited equities to position for the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals IPO.

According to him, the pressure from investors seeking to raise funds for the refinery offer subsequently eased, allowing the market to normalise in September.

He also identified Nigeria’s restoration to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market status as another positive development that supported the equities market during the month.

“FTSE Russell changed its position and eventually restored Nigeria to frontier status again. That was positive for the market,” he said.

Adonri said favourable developments in the external sector also supported the market, particularly the rise in crude oil prices, which remained above 100 dollars per barrel during the period.

He noted that improved macroeconomic conditions, including moderating inflation, a stronger Naira and a significant reduction in benchmark interest rates, encouraged the movement of funds into equities.

“The massive reduction in benchmark interest rates coupled with moderating inflation and a strengthening naira, created an environment that enabled financial assets to move into equities. The market rally pushed the year-to-date return above 60 per cent, while the All-Share Index crossed the 250,000-point level during the month,” he said

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Adonri said the market could benefit from increased portfolio positioning by investors ahead of full-year corporate distributions. He said this could particularly support financial equities as investors positioned their portfolios for year-end dividends and other distributions.

“The macroeconomic environment continues to remain conducive, both locally and externally, while the expansionary monetary policy being pursued by the monetary authorities is also supportive of equities,” he said.

Adonri also identified the planned Dangote Refinery IPO and the eventual listing of the company on the Nigerian Exchange as developments that could deepen the market.  He described the refinery listing as a potentially significant development for the Nigerian capital market, given the size of the company and its expected impact on market depth.

The analyst said the market had also become more mature and less susceptible to political rhetoric and uncertainty associated with the approach of a general election.

He said investors were increasingly focusing on economic fundamentals rather than political developments in making investment decisions.

“The factors expected to drive the market will be purely economic rather than political,” he said.

Adonri further said the possible listing of major companies in the oil and gas sector could deepen the equities market and increase its contribution to the economy. 

He said the emergence of large companies with significant earnings and turnover on the exchange would strengthen the market’s capacity to serve as a barometer for the performance of the Nigerian economy.

He, therefore, expressed optimism that the equities market would continue to strengthen toward the end of 2026 and into 2027, supported by improved macroeconomic conditions, new listings and increased investor participation.