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IMF projects Nigeria economy to grow by 0.8% in 2017

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The International Monetary Fund IMF has predicted that Nigeria will be out of recession in 2017 with a growth of 0.8 per cent. The global Multilateral Institution in its July World Economic Out Look released weekend said that the nation’s economy is projected to grow by 1.9 per cent in 2018.

The IMF in its July World Economic Out Look report said “Global growth for 2016 is now estimated at 3.2 per cent, slightly stronger than the April 2017 forecast, primarily reflecting much higher growth in Iran and stronger activity in India following national accounts revisions. Economic activity in both advanced economies and emerging and developing economies is forecast to accelerate in 2017, to 2 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively, with global growth projected to be 3.5 percent, unchanged from the April forecast.
“The growth forecast for 2018 is 1.9 per cent for advanced economies, 0.1 percentage point below the April 2017 WEO, and 4.8 per cent for emerging and developing economies, the same as in the spring. The 2018 global growth forecast is unchanged at 3.6 per cent. The revisions reflect primarily the macroeconomic implications of changes in policy assumptions for the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China, as discussed below.

“In Sub-Saharan Africa, the outlook remains challenging. Growth is projected to rise in 2017 and 2018, but will barely return to positive territory in per capita terms this year for the region as a whole—and would remain negative for about a third of the countries in the region. The slight upward revision to 2017 growth relative to the April 2017 WEO forecast reflects a modest upgrading of growth prospects for South Africa, which is experiencing a bumper crop due to better rainfall and an increase in mining output prompted by a moderate rebound in commodity prices. However, the outlook for South Africa remains difficult, with elevated political uncertainty and weak consumer and business confidence, and the country’s growth forecast was consequently marked down for 2018.

“Oil prices have receded, reflecting strong inventory levels in the United States and a pickup in supply. Headline inflation also generally softened as the impact of the commodity price rebound of the second half of 2016 faded, and remains at levels well below central bank targets in most advanced economies. Core inflation has remained broadly stable. It has largely been stable in emerging economies as well, with a few, such as Brazil and Russia, witnessing strong declines.

“The growth forecast in the United States has been revised down from 2.3 percent to 2.1 percent in 2017 and from 2.5 percent to 2.1 percent in 2018. While the markdown in the 2017 forecast reflects in part the weak growth outturn in the first quarter of the year, the major factor behind the growth revision, especially for 2018, is the assumption that fiscal policy will be less expansionary than previously assumed, given the uncertainty about the timing and nature of U.S. fiscal policy changes. Market expectations of fiscal stimulus have also receded. The growth forecast has also been revised down for the United Kingdom for 2017 on weaker-than-expected activity in the first quarter.
By contrast, growth projections for 2017 have been revised up for many euro area countries, including France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, where growth for the first quarter of 2017 was generally above expectations. This, together with positive growth revisions for the last quarter of 2016 and high-frequency indicators for the second quarter of 2017, indicate stronger momentum in domestic demand than previously anticipated.
“The growth forecast for 2017 was also revised up for Canada, where buoyant domestic demand boosted first-quarter growth to 3.7 percent and indicators suggest resilient second-quarter activity, and marginally for Japan, where private consumption, investment, and exports supported first-quarter growth.”

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15% petrol import tax requires strategic roll out – LCCI

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Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has stressed the need for a measured and strategic rollout of the 15 per cent petroleum import tax to ensure sustainable economic impact. The Director-General, LCCI, Dr Chinyere Almona, gave the advice in a statement on Monday in Lagos. Almona noted the recent decision by the Federal Government to impose a 15 per cent import tax on petrol and diesel, a move aimed at curbing import dependence and promoting local refining capacity.

She said while the policy direction aligned with the nation’s long-term objective of achieving energy self-sufficiency and naira strengthening, a strategic rollout was imperative. Almona said that Nigeria was already experiencing cost-of-living pressures, supply-chain, and inflation challenges and that the business community would be sensitive to further cost shocks. “The chamber recognises that discouraging fuel importation is a necessary step towards achieving domestic energy security, stimulating investment in local refineries, and deepening the downstream petroleum value chain.

“However, LCCI expresses concern about the current adequacy of local refining capacity to meet national demand. A premature restriction on imports, without sufficient domestic production, could lead to supply shortages, higher pump prices, and inflationary pressures across critical sectors,” she said. Almona called on the Federal Government to prioritise the full operationalisation and optimisation of local refineries, both public and private, including modular refineries and the recently revitalised major refining facilities. She said that a comprehensive framework for crude oil supply to these refineries in Naira rather than foreign exchange would significantly enhance cost efficiency, stabilise production, and strengthen the local value chain.

She said the chamber’s interest lied in a diversified downstream sector where multiple refineries, modular plants, and logistics firms thrive. She urged government to resolve outstanding labour union issues and create an enabling environment that fostered industrial harmony and private sector confidence.

According to her, ensuring clarity, consistency, and transparency in the implementation of the new tax regime will be crucial in preventing market distortions and sustaining investor trust. “While the reform is justified from an industrial policy standpoint, its success depends on practical implementation, robust safeguards, and parallel reforms to alleviate cost burdens on businesses and consumers. With local capacity not yet established, this tax will increase the cost of fuels as long as imports continue. Government needs to address the inhibiting factors against local production and refining before imposing this levy to discourage imports and support local production,” she said.

Almona recommended that the implementation of the tax policy be postponed. She advised that during the transition period government demonstrate its commitment through action by empowering local refiners through an efficient crude-for-Naira supply chain that ensured sufficient crude. “With this, refiners can boost their refining capacity with a stable supply of crude and adequately meet domestic demand at competitive rates. At this point, the imposition of an import tax will directly discourage importation and boost demand for the locally refined products,” she said.

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Update: Sanwo-Olu, others harp on stronger private sector role to drive AfCFTA success

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Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State has urged the private sector to take a stronger, more coordinated role in driving the successful implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Sanwo-Olu, who made the call at the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria High-Level Business Forum, held on Thursday in Lagos, said that the agreement holds the key to transforming Africa into a globally competitive economic powerhouse. The theme of the forum is “Mobilising Africa’s Private Sector for AfCFTA Towards Africa’s Economic Development Amid Global Uncertainty”.

It brought together policymakers, business leaders, and development experts from across the continent. Sanwo-Olu was represented by the Lagos State Commissioner for Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment, Mrs Folashade Ambrose-Medebem. The governor said AfCFTA had the potential to lift millions of Africans out of poverty, but only if the continent’s business community seized the opportunity to scale production and integrate value chains across borders. “Governments can negotiate tariffs and treaties, but businesses must produce, export, invest, and believe in cross-border possibilities.

The private sector is the true engine of trade and industrialisation; without it, AfCFTA will remain a document and not a driver of development,” Sanwo-Olu said. He said that Lagos State had continued to create an enabling business environment through deliberate investments in infrastructure, logistics and technology, all designed to enhance productivity and trade efficiency. “From our vibrant tech ecosystem in Yaba to the Lekki Deep Sea Port and the expanding industrial corridors of the state, we are building a Lagos that supports trade, innovation, and investment,” he added. The governor stressed the need to empower Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which he described as “the lifeblood of Africa’s economy”.

He said access to finance, mentorship, and digital tools remained essential for their growth. “Through the Lagos State Employment Trust Fund (LSETF), we have supported thousands of entrepreneurs with training and access to funding. When SMEs thrive, our communities grow, jobs are created, and the promise of AfCFTA becomes real,” Sanwo-Olu noted. In his goodwill message, Dr Abdulrashid Yerima, President of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), called on African governments to align policy frameworks with the realities of the private sector to ensure the success of AfCFTA.

Yerima said Africa’s shared prosperity depended on how effectively the continent could mobilise its entrepreneurs and innovators to take advantage of the 1.4 billion-strong continental market. “As private sector leaders, the employers of labour and creators of opportunity, we must move from aspiration to achievement, from potential to performance. AfCFTA is not just an agreement; it is Africa’s blueprint for collective economic independence,” he said. He emphasised the importance of strengthening cooperation among business coalitions, cooperatives, and industrial clusters to ensure that micro and small enterprises benefit from cross-border trade opportunities. “No SME can scale alone in a continental market.

We must build strong business networks that allow small enterprises to grow into regional champions,” he stressed. Yerima further encouraged African nations to adopt global best practices and digital frameworks, such as the OECD Digital for SMEs (D4SME) initiative, to improve access to knowledge, technology, and markets. Also speaking at the event, Mr Samuel Dossou-Aworet, President of the African Business Roundtable (ABR), urged African leaders to fully harness AfCFTA’s opportunities to build inclusive and sustainable economies. Dossou-Aworet noted that while Africa was currently the world’s second-fastest-growing region after Asia, sustained growth would require greater industrialisation and investment in human capital.

“The entry into force of the AfCFTA has expanded Africa’s investment frontiers. Where once our markets were fragmented, we now have a unified platform for trade and production. But growth must be inclusive, not just in numbers, but in impact on people’s lives,” he noted. Citing data from the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dossou-Aworet observed that 12 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2025 are African, including Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal. However, he cautioned that Africa’s GDP growth of around four per cent remained below the seven per cent threshold needed to significantly reduce poverty. “We must ensure that growth translates into better jobs, infrastructure, and access to opportunities for women and youth,” he stressed. He also called for innovative financing models to bridge Africa’s infrastructure gap and improve competitiveness in the global market.

“Africa needs market access and trade facilitation mechanisms to enable its products to reach global markets. Access to affordable capital is key, and our financial systems must evolve to support trade,” he added. Dossou-Aworet reaffirmed the African Business Roundtable’s commitment to supporting enterprise development and promoting Africa as a prime destination for investment. “This is Africa’s moment. If we work together, government, business, and citizens, we will build an Africa that competes confidently in the global economy and delivers prosperity for its people.”

The forum, convened by the NEPAD Business Group Nigeria, brought together regional and international partners to strengthen collaboration between public and private sectors in advancing AfCFTA’s goals. Chairman of the group, Chief J.K. Randle, commended the participation of leading business executives and policymakers, saying it reflected Africa’s readiness to take ownership of its economic destiny. Randle said, “We can no longer rely on external forces to drive our growth. The private sector must rise as the torchbearer of Africa’s transformation under AfCFTA.” He added that the forum would continue to serve as a platform for dialogue, knowledge exchange, and action planning to position African enterprises at the centre of global trade.

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First ever China–Europe Cargo transit completed via the Arctic route

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The first-ever container transit from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) arrived at the British port of Felixstowe on October 13, 2025. The voyage marked a breakthrough in developing the NSR as a sustainable and high-tech transport corridor connecting Asia and Europe. The development of this Arctic route reflects the steady expansion of global trade flows — an evolution that reaches every continent, including Africa, where maritime industries and energy corridors continue to expand.
The ship carrying nearly 25,000 tonnes of cargo departed from Ningbo on September 23 and entered the NSR on October 1. Navigation and information support was provided by Glavsevmorput, a subsidiary of Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation. The Arctic leg of the voyage took 20 days, cutting transit time almost by half compared with traditional southern routes. This new pathway complements existing ones, creating broader opportunities for efficient and sustainable logistics worldwide.
The Northern Sea Route is developing rapidly, becoming a viable and efficient global logistics route. This is facilitated by various factors, including the development of advanced technologies, the construction of new-generation nuclear icebreakers, and growing interest from international shippers. Working in the Arctic is challenging but we are transforming these challenges into results. Along with the main priority of ensuring the safety of navigation on the Northern Sea Route, managing the speed and time of passage along the route is becoming an important task for us today,” noted Rosatom State Corporation Special Representative for Arctic Development Vladimir Panov.
The Northern Sea Route, spanning about 5,600 km, links the western part of Eurasia with the Asia-Pacific region. In 2024, cargo turnover reached 37.9 million tonnes, surpassing the previous year’s record by more than 1.6 million. Container traffic between Russia and China doubled compared to 2023, and by mid-2025, 17 container voyages had already been completed, moving 280,000 tonnes — a 59% increase year-on-year.
The expansion of this Arctic transport route is becoming part of a broader global effort to strengthen connectivity and diversify supply chains. For Africa and the wider Global South these developments demonstrate how innovation in logistics can stimulate new opportunities for trade, technology exchange, and sustainable growth. As new corridors emerge, the world’s regions are becoming more closely linked — not in competition, but in collaboration — shaping a more resilient and interconnected global economy.

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